Bayesian‐network‐based risk modeling and inference for structures under a sequence of main and aftershocks

A sequence of main and aftershocks is a complex natural hazard, which may introduce severe damage to critical infrastructure systems. Managing the risk caused by sequential earthquake events is challenging due to the uncertainties of aftershocks and their dependency on the preceding mainshock. Moreo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earthquake engineering & structural dynamics 2022-04, Vol.51 (5), p.1058-1075
Main Authors: Mun, Changuk, Song, Junho
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
aftershock
Aftershocks
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian network
Bayesian theory
Earthquake damage
Earthquakes
Fragility
mainshock
Mathematical models
Modelling
Probabilistic inference
Probability theory
Risk management
Seismic activity
Sequencing
sequential earthquakes
Stochasticity
Structural damage
Structures
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Summary:A sequence of main and aftershocks is a complex natural hazard, which may introduce severe damage to critical infrastructure systems. Managing the risk caused by sequential earthquake events is challenging due to the uncertainties of aftershocks and their dependency on the preceding mainshock. Moreover, the dynamic behavior of a structural system under aftershocks must be evaluated with consideration of possible structural damage caused by the mainshock. To overcome these difficulties, this paper proposes a new framework based on a Bayesian network (BN) for risk modelling and inference for structures under a sequence of main and aftershocks. The stochastic mechanisms of sequential earthquakes and the hysteretic behavior of structures are described by BN models, which are then integrated for comprehensive modeling of the risk. The developed BN model facilitates probabilistic inference to obtain fragility curves given various circumstances regarding sequential earthquake events and observations. Numerical examples demonstrate fragility assessment and inference with the proposed BN‐based framework.
ISSN:0098-8847
1096-9845
DOI:10.1002/eqe.3604