What Drives a Future German Bioeconomy? A Narrative and STEEPLE Analysis for Explorative Characterisation of Scenario Drivers

A future bioeconomy pursues the transformation of the resource base from fossil to renewable materials in an effort to develop a holistic, sustainable production and provision system. While the significance of this change in the German context is not yet entirely explored, scenarios analysing possib...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2022-03, Vol.14 (5), p.3045
Main Authors: Richter, Sören, Szarka, Nora, Bezama, Alberto, Thrän, Daniela
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Decision making
Interdisciplinary aspects
International studies
Narratives
Renewable resources
Sustainability
Sustainable production
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Summary:A future bioeconomy pursues the transformation of the resource base from fossil to renewable materials in an effort to develop a holistic, sustainable production and provision system. While the significance of this change in the German context is not yet entirely explored, scenarios analysing possible pathways could support the understanding of these changes and their systemic implications. Bioeconomy in detail depends on respective framework conditions, such as the availability of biomass or technological research priorities. Thus, for scenario creation, transferable methods for flexible input settings are needed. Addressing this issue, the study identifies relevant bioeconomy scenario drivers. With the theoretical approach of narrative analysis, 92 statements of the German National Bioeconomy Strategy 2020 have been evaluated and 21 international studies in a STEEPLE framework were assessed. For a future German bioeconomy 19 important drivers could be determined and specific aspects of the resource base, production processes and products as well as overarching issues were exploratively characterised on a quantitative and qualitative basis. The developed method demonstrate an approach for a transparent scenario driver identification that is applicable to other strategy papers. The results illustrate a possible future German bioeconomy that is resource- and technology-driven by following a value-based objective, and which is supplied by biogenic residue and side product feedstocks. As such, the bioeconomy scenario drivers can be used as a starting point for future research like scenario development or modelling of a future German bioeconomy.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su14053045