Responses of Horizontally Expanding Oceanic Oxygen Minimum Zones to Climate Change Based on Observations

Due to climate change, global oceanic dissolved oxygen (DO) has been decreasing, and oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) have been expanding. Here, we estimate the annual global and regional OMZ areas using geostatistical regression combined with Monte Carlo. From 1960 to 2019, annual global OMZ20 (DO 

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Published in:Geophysical research letters 2022-03, Vol.49 (6), p.n/a
Main Authors: Zhou, Yuntao, Gong, Hongjing, Zhou, Feng
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Annual
Climate change
climate warming
Dissolved oxygen
Interannual variability
Marine resources
Marine resources management
Oceans
Oxygen
oxygen minimum zones
Resource management
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Statistical methods
Surface temperature
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creator Zhou, Yuntao
Gong, Hongjing
Zhou, Feng
description Due to climate change, global oceanic dissolved oxygen (DO) has been decreasing, and oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) have been expanding. Here, we estimate the annual global and regional OMZ areas using geostatistical regression combined with Monte Carlo. From 1960 to 2019, annual global OMZ20 (DO 
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Here, we estimate the annual global and regional OMZ areas using geostatistical regression combined with Monte Carlo. From 1960 to 2019, annual global OMZ20 (DO &lt; 20 μmol/kg) and OMZ60 (DO &lt; 60 μmol/kg) areas cover 5%–14% and 15%–32% of the global ocean, respectively. The global and most regional OMZ areas after the late 2000s were all significantly larger than those in previous years. Most oceanic regions likely experienced significant expansions in OMZ areas, especially the North Pacific. However, the equatorial Pacific with the largest OMZ area showed insignificant horizontal expansion. The expanding OMZ areas of most oceans responded more quickly and effectively to the surrounding sea temperatures than to the sea surface temperatures. Our research highlights the need for marine resource management to account for the challenges from OMZs. Plain Language Summary Expanding oxygen minimum zones (OMZs, low dissolved oxygen [DO] zones) in the open ocean have been the topic of intense interest. However, annual OMZ areas, trends in OMZ areas, and causes of OMZ expansions remain unclear. Our paper explores the locations and annual areas of global and regional OMZ areas based on observations from 1960 to 2019. Over the last six decades, annual global OMZ20 (DO &lt; 20 μmol/kg) and OMZ60 (DO &lt; 60 μmol/kg) areas cover 5%–14% and 15%–32% of the global ocean, respectively. The global OMZ areas show great interannual variability but remain stably large after the late 2000s. Most oceanic regions have experienced significant OMZ expansion, especially the North Pacific. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has the largest OMZ area, but shows insignificant expansion. Subsurface sea temperatures are more associated with the expanding OMZ areas than sea surface temperatures. Increasing sea temperature would substantially increase OMZ areas by the end of the century for the future societal development pathway (SSP585) scenario. Understanding how OMZs will change over the long‐term due to climate change is beneficial for the protection of marine resources. Key Points From 1960 to 2019, most oceanic regions experienced significant horizontal expansions in oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) areas, especially the North Pacific The equatorial Pacific has the largest OMZ area but shows an insignificant increasing trend The OMZ areas of most oceans respond more quickly and effectively to surrounding sea temperatures than to sea surface temperatures</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2022GL097724</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Annual ; Climate change ; climate warming ; Dissolved oxygen ; Interannual variability ; Marine resources ; Marine resources management ; Oceans ; Oxygen ; oxygen minimum zones ; Resource management ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Statistical methods ; Surface temperature</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2022-03, Vol.49 (6), p.n/a</ispartof><rights>2022. 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Here, we estimate the annual global and regional OMZ areas using geostatistical regression combined with Monte Carlo. From 1960 to 2019, annual global OMZ20 (DO &lt; 20 μmol/kg) and OMZ60 (DO &lt; 60 μmol/kg) areas cover 5%–14% and 15%–32% of the global ocean, respectively. The global and most regional OMZ areas after the late 2000s were all significantly larger than those in previous years. Most oceanic regions likely experienced significant expansions in OMZ areas, especially the North Pacific. However, the equatorial Pacific with the largest OMZ area showed insignificant horizontal expansion. The expanding OMZ areas of most oceans responded more quickly and effectively to the surrounding sea temperatures than to the sea surface temperatures. Our research highlights the need for marine resource management to account for the challenges from OMZs. Plain Language Summary Expanding oxygen minimum zones (OMZs, low dissolved oxygen [DO] zones) in the open ocean have been the topic of intense interest. However, annual OMZ areas, trends in OMZ areas, and causes of OMZ expansions remain unclear. Our paper explores the locations and annual areas of global and regional OMZ areas based on observations from 1960 to 2019. Over the last six decades, annual global OMZ20 (DO &lt; 20 μmol/kg) and OMZ60 (DO &lt; 60 μmol/kg) areas cover 5%–14% and 15%–32% of the global ocean, respectively. The global OMZ areas show great interannual variability but remain stably large after the late 2000s. Most oceanic regions have experienced significant OMZ expansion, especially the North Pacific. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has the largest OMZ area, but shows insignificant expansion. Subsurface sea temperatures are more associated with the expanding OMZ areas than sea surface temperatures. Increasing sea temperature would substantially increase OMZ areas by the end of the century for the future societal development pathway (SSP585) scenario. Understanding how OMZs will change over the long‐term due to climate change is beneficial for the protection of marine resources. 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Plain Language Summary Expanding oxygen minimum zones (OMZs, low dissolved oxygen [DO] zones) in the open ocean have been the topic of intense interest. However, annual OMZ areas, trends in OMZ areas, and causes of OMZ expansions remain unclear. Our paper explores the locations and annual areas of global and regional OMZ areas based on observations from 1960 to 2019. Over the last six decades, annual global OMZ20 (DO &lt; 20 μmol/kg) and OMZ60 (DO &lt; 60 μmol/kg) areas cover 5%–14% and 15%–32% of the global ocean, respectively. The global OMZ areas show great interannual variability but remain stably large after the late 2000s. Most oceanic regions have experienced significant OMZ expansion, especially the North Pacific. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has the largest OMZ area, but shows insignificant expansion. Subsurface sea temperatures are more associated with the expanding OMZ areas than sea surface temperatures. Increasing sea temperature would substantially increase OMZ areas by the end of the century for the future societal development pathway (SSP585) scenario. Understanding how OMZs will change over the long‐term due to climate change is beneficial for the protection of marine resources. Key Points From 1960 to 2019, most oceanic regions experienced significant horizontal expansions in oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) areas, especially the North Pacific The equatorial Pacific has the largest OMZ area but shows an insignificant increasing trend The OMZ areas of most oceans respond more quickly and effectively to surrounding sea temperatures than to sea surface temperatures</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1029/2022GL097724</doi><tpages>11</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9714-5385</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4635-9233</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6938-8523</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Annual
Climate change
climate warming
Dissolved oxygen
Interannual variability
Marine resources
Marine resources management
Oceans
Oxygen
oxygen minimum zones
Resource management
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Statistical methods
Surface temperature
title Responses of Horizontally Expanding Oceanic Oxygen Minimum Zones to Climate Change Based on Observations
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