Nitrous oxide variability and predictability in the tropics using statistical analysis

Among the three most powerful long-lived greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) present in the atmosphere and affected by human activities, N 2 O has the longest atmospheric lifetime than the rest and a large global warming potential. Its impact is about 300 times that of CO 2 which also has a l...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IOP conference series. Earth and environmental science 2022-03, Vol.993 (1), p.12010
Main Author: Ogunsola, O.E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Carbon dioxide
Climate change
Correlation coefficient
Correlation coefficients
fluctuations
future concentration
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Human influences
Linear equations
Nitrous oxide
Polynomials
Regression analysis
smoothening
Statistical analysis
trend
Tropical environments
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Summary:Among the three most powerful long-lived greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) present in the atmosphere and affected by human activities, N 2 O has the longest atmospheric lifetime than the rest and a large global warming potential. Its impact is about 300 times that of CO 2 which also has a life time next to it amongst these three long-lived gases. The presence of N 2 O has the potential effect of raising global temperature because of its ability to trap heat. Hence, it is necessary to predict its future concentration so as to know its possible trend. The analyses of these concentrations were carried out using descriptive statistics. The moving average was used in smoothening out its fluctuations in order for the trend to become apparent and the regression analysis was utilized in fitting the appropriate equations for predicting its concentration. The mean annual concentration value of this gas for the period 1998 – 2012 at the various stations consideredwas 319.09±0.63ppb with an average range of 11.98±0.23ppb.The comparison of the actual data with the modeled data showed high correlation coefficients and the polynomial function of order 1 (linear equation) is sufficient in predicting the concentrations of this gas if the current trend should continue.
ISSN:1755-1307
1755-1315
DOI:10.1088/1755-1315/993/1/012010