Population Prediction of Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities Based on Multiple Models

In recent years, the population growth rate has been gradually declining in China. As the population problem becomes increasingly significant, the accurate prediction of population development trends has become a top priority, used to facilitate national scientific planning and effective decision ma...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2022-04, Vol.14 (8), p.4844
Main Authors: Chen, Lixuan, Mu, Tianyu, Li, Xiuting, Dong, Jichang
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Aging
Birth rate
Cities
Decision making
Fertility
Geographical distribution
Grey prediction
Growth rate
Hypotheses
Labor force
Logit models
Metropolitan areas
Population decline
Population growth
Prediction models
Regional development
Regional planning
Regression analysis
Social change
Sustainability
Trends
Urban populations
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:In recent years, the population growth rate has been gradually declining in China. As the population problem becomes increasingly significant, the accurate prediction of population development trends has become a top priority, used to facilitate national scientific planning and effective decision making. Based on historical data spanning a period of 20 years (1999–2018), this article presents predictions of the populations of 210 prefecture-level cities using the Malthusian model, Unary linear regression model, Logistic model, and Gray prediction model. Furthermore, because the gray prediction model exhibited the highest degree of accuracy in formulating predictions, this study uses the model to predict and analyze future population development trends. The results reveal that the population gap between cities is gradually widening, and the total urban population shows a pattern of rising in middle-tier cities (second-tier cities and third-tier cities) and declining in high-tier cities (first-tier cities and new first-tier cities) and low-tier cities (fourth-tier cities and fifth-tier cities). From the viewpoint of geographical distribution, the population growth rate is basically balanced between the northern part and the southern part of China. In addition, the population growth of the high-tier cities is gradually slowing while the low-tier cities are experiencing a negative growth of population, but middle-tier cities are experiencing skyrocketing population growth. From the viewpoint of regional development, although the development of regional integration has been strengthened over the years, the radiative driving effect of large urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas is relatively limited.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su14084844