Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Annual Maximum Flood in an Urban River in Dublin, Ireland

Hydrological modelling to address the problem of flood risk corresponding to climate change can play an important role in water resources management. This paper describes the potential impact of climate change on an urban river catchment using a physically based hydrological model called Soil Water...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2022-04, Vol.14 (8), p.4670
Main Authors: Sarkar Basu, Arunima, Gill, Laurence William, Pilla, Francesco, Basu, Bidroha
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Basins
Climate change
Climate models
Flood mapping
Flood predictions
Flooding
Floods
Hydrologic models
Hydrology
Maximum flow
Maximum probable flood
Moisture content
Precipitation
Rain
River basins
River catchments
River networks
Rivers
Soil water
Stream flow
Sustainability
Time series
Urban areas
Variables
Water management
Water resources
Water resources management
Watersheds
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Summary:Hydrological modelling to address the problem of flood risk corresponding to climate change can play an important role in water resources management. This paper describes the potential impact of climate change on an urban river catchment using a physically based hydrological model called Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The study area considered is the Dodder River basin located in the southern part of Dublin, the capital city of Ireland. Climate projections from three regional climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RPC 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the impact of flooding corresponding to different climate change scenarios. Annual maximum flow (AMF) is generated by combining the bias-corrected climate projections with the calibrated and validated SWAT model to understand the projected changes in flood patterns for the year 2021–2100. The expected changes in flood quantiles were estimated using a generalised extreme value distribution. The results predicted up to 12% and 16% increase in flood quantiles corresponding to 50 years and 100 years return periods. Based on the flood quantiles, flood inundation maps were developed for the study area.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su14084670