Pathways to peak carbon emissions in China by 2030: An analysis in relation to the economic growth rate

• Published in: Science China. Earth sciences 2022-06, Vol.65 (6), p.1057-1072
• Main Authors: Liu, Weidong, Jiang, Wanbei, Tang, Zhipeng, Han, Mengyao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Algorithms; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide emissions; Carbon emissions; Decision making; Decision trees; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Economic analysis; Economic development; Economic growth; Economics; Emissions; Emissions control; Energy; Energy consumption; Fossil fuels; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Growth rate; Luminous intensity; Mathematical models; Research Paper
• ISSN: 1674-7313; 1869-1897
• DOI: 10.1007/s11430-021-9901-y

With less than ten years left to meet its pledge to peak carbon dioxide emissions (peak emissions hereafter) by 2030, China has entered a critical emissions reduction stage. How to meet this commitment in a context in which GDP per capita will double from 2020 by 2035 is a major decision-making issue for the Chinese government and people and one which warrants further study. To reveal the relationships between the GDP growth rate, the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the time to reach peak emissions, this study translates the question as to “when China’s carbon emissions peak will occur” into “how can one control the rate of carbon intensity decrease at a given GDP growth rate”. In the light of the results of a random forest algorithm used to identify and project the key drivers of carbon intensity in China, a mathematical model was developed to simulate different scenarios relating to decreases in carbon intensity. The date at which Chinese carbon emissions will peak is predicted by comparing the rate of decrease of carbon intensity with the GDP growth rate. The results show that the time to peak emissions depends on the relationship between the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the GDP growth rate, where the former depends mainly on the energy structure and policy. If China’s annual GDP growth rate were 5.0% during the 15th Five-Year Plan, and if the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption were 23.0% or above, China’s carbon emissions will peak before 2030. If the share of non-fossil fuels were 20.0% or less, China might not be able to reach its 2030 target. In this latter case an acceleration in the pace of energy restructuring would be required to reach peak emissions before 2030. The projected peak emissions scenarios suggest that the carbon peak will occur between 2025 to 2029, with average peak emissions of 11.2 billion tons and a distribution ranging from a minimum of 10.5 billion and a maximum of 11.9 billion tons. If the GDP growth rate were 4.5%, 5.5% or 6.0% during the 15th Five-year Plan, the share of non-fossil energy must reach 23.0%, 25.0% or 27.0%, respectively, to ensure that emissions peak by 2030. The results of this study provide a series of reference points for China’s pursuit of feasible pathways to peak carbon emissions by 2030.