A generic model for pandemics in networks of communities and the role of vaccination

• Published in: arXiv.org 2022-05
• Main Authors: Antonopoulos, Chris G, Akram, Mohammad H, Basios, Vasileios, Latifi, Anouchah
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bronzes; Coronaviruses; Coupling; COVID-19 vaccines; Disease transmission; Gold; Immunization; Infections; Networks; Pandemics; Viral diseases; Viruses
• ISSN: 2331-8422
• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2205.12434

The slogan "nobody is safe until everybody is safe" is a dictum to raise awareness that in an interconnected world, pandemics such as COVID-19, require a global approach. Motivated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we model here the spread of a virus in interconnected communities and explore different vaccination scenarios, assuming that the efficacy of the vaccination wanes over time. We start with susceptible populations and consider a susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered model with unvaccinated ("Bronze"), moderately vaccinated ("Silver") and very well vaccinated ("Gold") communities, connected through different types of networks via a diffusive linear coupling for local spreading. We show that when considering interactions in "Bronze"-"Gold" and "Bronze"-"Silver" communities, the "Bronze" community is driving an increase in infections in the "Silver" and "Gold" communities. This shows a detrimental, unidirectional effect of non-vaccinated to vaccinated communities. Regarding the interactions between "Gold", "Silver" and "Bronze" communities in a network, we find that two factors play central role: the coupling strength in the dynamics and network density. When considering the spread of a virus in Barabási-Albert networks, infections in "Silver" and "Gold" communities are lower than in "Bronze" communities. We find that the "Gold" communities are the best in keeping their infection levels low. However, a small number of "Bronze" communities are enough to give rise to an increase in infections in moderately and well-vaccinated communities. When studying the spread of a virus in a dense Erdős-Rényi, and sparse Watts-Strogatz and Barabási-Albert networks, the communities reach the disease-free state in the dense Erdős-Rényi networks, but not in the sparse Watts-Strogatz and Barabási-Albert networks. However, we also find that if all these networks...