Wind energy forecasting by fitting predicted probability density functions of wind speed measurements

The aim of this work is to forecast wind energy by fitting the wind speed logged data, that have been measured over a year period (Nov. 2019–Mar. 2021), on a unique probability density function selected among a number of similar probability functions, as it is not always possible to select one distr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of energy and environmental engineering 2022-06, Vol.13 (2), p.573-585
Main Author: Abdul Majid, Amir J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Distribution (Probability theory)
Distribution functions
Energy
Error analysis
Forecasting
Forecasts and trends
Original Research
Parameters
Probabilistic analysis
Probability density functions
Renewable and Green Energy
Speed
Statistical analysis
Wind measurement
Wind power
Wind speed
Winds
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Summary:The aim of this work is to forecast wind energy by fitting the wind speed logged data, that have been measured over a year period (Nov. 2019–Mar. 2021), on a unique probability density function selected among a number of similar probability functions, as it is not always possible to select one distribution function that fits all wind speed regimes. The wind speed and direction data were measured at Fujairah site, which are affected by long-term fluctuation of ± 10% of wind speed, and short-term fluctuation of more than ± 20%. Based on the foregoing measurements, five different probability density functions can be fitted, namely Weibull, Rayleigh, Gamma, Lognormal and Exponential, with their associated parameters. A procedural algorithm is proposed for wind speed forecasting with best selected fitting distribution function, using a procedural forecast-check method, in which forecasting is performed with time on the most suitable distribution function that fits the foregoing data, depending on minimum errors accumulated from preceded measurements. Different error estimation methods are applied. The algorithm of selecting different distribution functions with time, makes energy prediction more accurate depending on the fluctuation of wind speed. A detailed probabilistic analysis is carried out to predict probable wind speed, and hence wind energy, based on variations of the parameters of the selected fitting distribution function.
ISSN:2008-9163
2251-6832
DOI:10.1007/s40095-022-00475-8