Erik Hornung Discussion of: Policies in the Middle Run

In the absence of safe and effective vaccines, should we attempt to contain pandemics or not? The answer to this question obviously depends on various considerations. Next to the immediate consequences of a raging pandemic, we may need to consider consequences that occur in the longer run. Thus, one...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economic policy 2022-01, Vol.37 (109), p.83-84
Main Author: Hornung, Erik
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Economic policy
Immune response
Immunity
Mortality rates
Pandemics
Policy making
Trade policy
Vaccines
Variants
Viruses
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Summary:In the absence of safe and effective vaccines, should we attempt to contain pandemics or not? The answer to this question obviously depends on various considerations. Next to the immediate consequences of a raging pandemic, we may need to consider consequences that occur in the longer run. Thus, one of the trade-offs policy-makers are confronted with is between low mortality rates today or potentially better immune responses in the future. In one conceivable version of this world, an unchecked virus wreaks substantial havoc today but creates a better immune response in the surviving population with respect to future versions of the virus. In another conceivable version of this world, the virus is checked by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and does relatively little immediate damage but becomes a dreaded frequent visitor. If only we knew whether infections provide sufficient immunity against future variants.
ISSN:0266-4658
1468-0327
DOI:10.1093/epolic/eiac015