On the Implementation of Postprocessing of Runoff Forecast Ensembles

• Published in: Journal of hydrometeorology 2021-10, Vol.22 (10), p.2731-2749
• Main Authors: Skøien, Jon Olav, Bogner, Konrad, Salamon, Peter, Wetterhall, Fredrik
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Calibration; Economic forecasting; Ensemble forecasting; Errors; Forecast errors; Hydrologic models; Hydrology; Initial conditions; Interpolation; Lead time; Mathematical models; Methods; Modelling; Runoff; Runoff forecasting; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Stream flow; Variables; Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 1525-755X; 1525-7541
• DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0008.1

Different postprocessing techniques are frequently employed to improve the outcome of ensemble forecasting models. The main reason is to compensate for biases caused by errors in model structure or initial conditions, and as a correction for under- or overdispersed ensembles. Here we use the ensemble model output statistics method to postprocess the ensemble output from a continental-scale hydrological model, LISFLOOD, as used in the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). We develop a method for local calibration and interpolation of the postprocessing parameters and compare it with a more traditional global calibration approach for 678 stations in Europe based on longterm observations of runoff and meteorological variables. For the global calibration we also test a reduced model with only a variance inflation factor. Whereas the postprocessing improved the results for the first 1–2 days lead time, the improvement was less for increasing lead times of the verification period. This was the case both for the local and global calibration methods. As the postprocessing is based on assumptions about the distribution of forecast errors, we also present an analysis of the ensemble output that provides some indications of what to expect from the postprocessing.