The water mass transformation framework and variability in hurricane activity

Hurricane activity has been higher since 1995 than in the 1970s and 1980s. This rise in activity has been linked to a warming Atlantic. In this study, we consider variability of the volume of water warmer than 26.5 ºC, considered widely to be the temperature threshold crucial to hurricane developmen...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate dynamics 2022-08, Vol.59 (3-4), p.961-972
Main Authors: Harris, Elizabeth A., Marsh, Robert, Grist, Jeremy. P., McCarthy, Gerard. D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anomalies
Climatology
Distribution
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental aspects
Genetic transformation
Geophysics/Geodesy
Heat
Heat exchange
Heat flux
Heat transfer
Heat transport
Hurricane development
Hurricanes
Mathematical analysis
Ocean currents
Ocean temperature
Ocean-atmosphere interaction
Oceanography
Oceans
Sea surface
Temperature
United Kingdom
Variability
Water
Water mass transformation
Water masses
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Summary:Hurricane activity has been higher since 1995 than in the 1970s and 1980s. This rise in activity has been linked to a warming Atlantic. In this study, we consider variability of the volume of water warmer than 26.5 ºC, considered widely to be the temperature threshold crucial to hurricane development. We find the depth of the 26.5 ºC isotherm better correlated with seasonal hurricane counts than SST in the early part of the Atlantic hurricane season in some regions. The volume of water transformed by surface heat fluxes to temperatures above 26.5 ºC is directly calculated using the Water Mass Transformation framework. This volume is compared with the year-to-year changes in the volume of water of this temperature to see how much of the volume can be explained using this calculation. In some years, there is notable correspondence between transformed and observed volume anomalies, but anomalies in other years must be largely associated with other processes, such as the divergence of horizontal heat transport associated with the AMOC. This technique provides evidence that, in a given year, coordinated physical mechanisms are responsible for the build-up of anomalous ocean heat; not only net surface heat exchange but also the convergence of horizontal heat transport from ocean currents, to provide fuel for larger numbers of intense hurricanes.
ISSN:0930-7575
1432-0894
DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06169-5