Development of Problem-Oriented Management and Decision-Making System and Optimization of Economic and Social Systems

• Published in: Webology 2021-10, Vol.18 (SI05), p.436-451
• Main Authors: Zubovа, Lyudmila V., Korovin, Eduard Viktorovich, Smirnov, Alexey Sergeevich, Kuzmin, Vladimir N., Kurakov, Andrey Valerievich
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Algorithms; Costs; Decentralization; Decision making; Information processing; Management decisions; Project management; R&D; Research & development; Risk assessment
• ISSN: 1735-188X; 1735-188X
• DOI: 10.14704/WEB/V18SI05/WEB18239

The main goal of this study is to develop the theory of risk tolerance in task-oriented processes (using the example of enterprises engaged in research, development, and engineering), which is preceded by an analysis of scientific and methodological provisions for substantiating management decisions when developing promising space rocket technology under economic risks. The complexity of developing the theory of risk tolerance using the example of enterprises involved in the development of military and dual-use equipment lies in the multistructured evaluating system itself, justified by its multicomponent structure and large scale of topological complexity and logic of functioning in various modes and under different conditions, which leads to the need to divide it into a set of subsystems as moving substances in the process of task-oriented processes that have informational, methodological, and algorithmic commonality. That is accompanied by the decentralization of information processing in a structural parametric uncertainty. In this regard, in order to parameterize the uncertainty processes, the authors present a risk tolerance level assessment process diagram in task-oriented processes when developing military and dual-use equipment. Using the algorithm for determining the marginal cost of risk, marginal risk tolerance, and marginal risk level of an economic entity according to the method of L.V. Zubova, the work presents an approach of potentially dangerous risks (PDR) categorization of the financial and economic sphere and suggests ways to minimize risk, taking into account, if possible, risk rejection, determining the "cost of no action" in the face of uncertainty.