Statistical Aspects of Quantitative Estimation of Polar Amplification. Part 1: The Ratio of Trends

Statistical aspects of the quantitative estimation of the climate change polar amplification (PA) are considered. A theoretical study is provided of the distribution density for the PA sample coefficient defined as the ratio of the linear trend coefficients of spatially averaged surface air temperat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Russian meteorology and hydrology 2022-06, Vol.47 (6), p.419-427
Main Author: Bekryaev, R. V.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air temperature
Amplification
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate models
Climate system
Coefficients
Distribution
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Meteorology
Polar climates
Statistics
Surface temperature
Surface-air temperature relationships
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Summary:Statistical aspects of the quantitative estimation of the climate change polar amplification (PA) are considered. A theoretical study is provided of the distribution density for the PA sample coefficient defined as the ratio of the linear trend coefficients of spatially averaged surface air temperature. It is shown that heavy tails of the distribution lead to instability of the PA sample estimates. A statistically valid quantification of the PA can be obtained from the results of the ensemble modeling of climate change based on the Fieller’s method. The applicability of the method in the case of a non-stationary climate system response to external forcing is considered.
ISSN:1068-3739
1934-8096
DOI:10.3103/S1068373922060012