Balancing prey availability and predator consumption: a multispecies stock assessment for Lake Ontario

Trophic interactions are drivers of ecosystem change and stability, yet are often excluded from fishery assessment models, despite their potential capacity to improve estimates of species dynamics and future fishery sustainability. In Lake Ontario, recreational salmonine fisheries, including Chinook...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences 2022-09, Vol.79 (9), p.1529-1545
Main Authors: Fitzpatrick, Kimberly B, Weidel, Brian C, Connerton, Michael J, Lantry, Jana R, Holden, Jeremy P, Yuille, Michael J, Lantry, Brian, LaPan, Steven R, Rudstam, Lars G, Sullivan, Patrick J, Brenden, Travis O, Sethi, Suresh A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algae
Alosa pseudoharengus
Availability
Consumption
Distribution
Environmental changes
Fish industry
Fisheries
Fisheries management
Food chains
Growth rate
Lake fisheries
Lakes
Mathematical models
Oncorhynchus tshawytscha
Population growth
Predation (Biology)
Predator-prey interactions
Predators
Prey
Recruitment
Salmon
Salmoniformes
Salvelinus namaycush
Species
Stability analysis
Statistical analysis
Stock assessment
Sustainable development
Trophic relationships
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Summary:Trophic interactions are drivers of ecosystem change and stability, yet are often excluded from fishery assessment models, despite their potential capacity to improve estimates of species dynamics and future fishery sustainability. In Lake Ontario, recreational salmonine fisheries, including Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), depend on a single prey species, alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). To accommodate strong trophic interactions among species, we developed a multispecies statistical catch-at-age assessment (MSCAA) model that links the dynamics of the salmonine fisheries and alewife via prey consumption and predator growth. We found that prey availability had declined since 2015 due to decreased alewife recruitment and increased Chinook salmon biomass, leading to higher alewife mortality rates and lower predator growth rates. Forward projections of predator-prey dynamics suggest that Chinook salmon stocking reductions may improve the probability for alewife population growth, but could be counteracted by increased natural Chinook salmon recruitment. Combined with predator- and prey-monitoring efforts, multispecies assessments show promise as models of intermediate complexity to support a transition to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management.
ISSN:0706-652X
1205-7533
DOI:10.1139/cjfas-2021-0126