Loading…
Confirming the broadscale eradication success of nutria (Myocastor coypus) from the Delmarva Peninsula, USA
Nutria ( Myocastor coypus ) were introduced to the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, USA in the 1940s. They reached peak densities in the late 1990s, causing massive wetland loss. Beginning in 2002, a systematic plan to eradicate nutria from the 1.7M ha Delmarva Peninsula was implemented. Since that...
Saved in:
Published in: | Biological invasions 2022-11, Vol.24 (11), p.3509-3521 |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | |
Citations: | Items that this one cites Items that cite this one |
Online Access: | Get full text |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
cited_by | cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c293t-44746a4825fd656cf6fdeb39899813cb1093a4887a89825c75927d31f84cd3373 |
---|---|
cites | cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c293t-44746a4825fd656cf6fdeb39899813cb1093a4887a89825c75927d31f84cd3373 |
container_end_page | 3521 |
container_issue | 11 |
container_start_page | 3509 |
container_title | Biological invasions |
container_volume | 24 |
creator | Anderson, Dean P. Pepper, Margaret A. Travers, Shelby Michaels, Trevor A. Sullivan, Kevin Ramsey, David S. L. |
description | Nutria (
Myocastor coypus
) were introduced to the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, USA in the 1940s. They reached peak densities in the late 1990s, causing massive wetland loss. Beginning in 2002, a systematic plan to eradicate nutria from the 1.7M ha Delmarva Peninsula was implemented. Since that time the nutria population has been effectively reduced, and no nutria have been detected since May 2015. A lack of detection does not equate with complete absence. We address the following three questions. (1) What is the expected probability of nutria eradication from the Delmarva Peninsula as of the end of 2020? (2) If the probability of eradication is below the management target of 0.95, how much more surveillance is required? (3) How sensitive is the estimated probability of eradication to varying levels of public surveillance and modelled population growth rates? These questions were addressed by employing a stochastic spatially-explicit surveillance model that uses data in which no nutria were detected to quantify the probability of complete absence (
PoA
) over the entire Delmarva Peninsula. We applied an analytical framework that decomposes the spatial risk of survivors and data into management zones, and took advantage of low-cost public reporting of nutria sightings. Active surveillance by the eradication program included detector dog and tracker surveys, shoreline surveys, detection with ground and water platforms (with hair snares), and camera traps. Results showed that the
PoA
increased with time and surveillance from a beginning
PoA
in May 2015 of 0.01 to a mean of 0.75 at the end of 2020. This indicates that the
PoA
on the Delmarva was well below the target threshold of 0.95 for declaring eradication success. However, given continued surveillance without detection, a
PoA
of 0.95 would be achieved by June 2022. This analysis provides an objective mechanism to align the expectations of policy makers, managers and the public on when eradication of nutria from the entire Delmarva Peninsula should be declared successful. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10530-022-02855-x |
format | article |
fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_2725714911</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2725714911</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c293t-44746a4825fd656cf6fdeb39899813cb1093a4887a89825c75927d31f84cd3373</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kE1LAzEQhoMoWKt_wFPAi4Kr-dxsjqV-QkVBew5pNqlbt0lNdqX998ZW8OZhmIF533eGB4BTjK4wQuI6YcQpKhAhuSrOi_UeGGAuaIFZyfbzTCtRUM7EIThKaYEQkgLxAfgYB--auGz8HHbvFs5i0HUyurXQRl03RndN8DD1xtiUYHDQ911sNDx_2gSjUxciNGGz6tMFdDEstyE3tl3q-KXhi_WNT32rL-H0dXQMDpxukz357UMwvbt9Gz8Uk-f7x_FoUhgiaVcwJlipWUW4q0teGle62s6orKSsMDUzjCTN60roSmaREVwSUVPsKmZqSgUdgrNd7iqGz96mTi1CH30-qYggXGAmMc4qslOZGFKK1qlVbPLbG4WR-oGqdlBVhqq2UNU6m-jOlLLYz238i_7H9Q1PMnpS</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2725714911</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Confirming the broadscale eradication success of nutria (Myocastor coypus) from the Delmarva Peninsula, USA</title><source>Springer Link</source><creator>Anderson, Dean P. ; Pepper, Margaret A. ; Travers, Shelby ; Michaels, Trevor A. ; Sullivan, Kevin ; Ramsey, David S. L.</creator><creatorcontrib>Anderson, Dean P. ; Pepper, Margaret A. ; Travers, Shelby ; Michaels, Trevor A. ; Sullivan, Kevin ; Ramsey, David S. L.</creatorcontrib><description>Nutria (
Myocastor coypus
) were introduced to the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, USA in the 1940s. They reached peak densities in the late 1990s, causing massive wetland loss. Beginning in 2002, a systematic plan to eradicate nutria from the 1.7M ha Delmarva Peninsula was implemented. Since that time the nutria population has been effectively reduced, and no nutria have been detected since May 2015. A lack of detection does not equate with complete absence. We address the following three questions. (1) What is the expected probability of nutria eradication from the Delmarva Peninsula as of the end of 2020? (2) If the probability of eradication is below the management target of 0.95, how much more surveillance is required? (3) How sensitive is the estimated probability of eradication to varying levels of public surveillance and modelled population growth rates? These questions were addressed by employing a stochastic spatially-explicit surveillance model that uses data in which no nutria were detected to quantify the probability of complete absence (
PoA
) over the entire Delmarva Peninsula. We applied an analytical framework that decomposes the spatial risk of survivors and data into management zones, and took advantage of low-cost public reporting of nutria sightings. Active surveillance by the eradication program included detector dog and tracker surveys, shoreline surveys, detection with ground and water platforms (with hair snares), and camera traps. Results showed that the
PoA
increased with time and surveillance from a beginning
PoA
in May 2015 of 0.01 to a mean of 0.75 at the end of 2020. This indicates that the
PoA
on the Delmarva was well below the target threshold of 0.95 for declaring eradication success. However, given continued surveillance without detection, a
PoA
of 0.95 would be achieved by June 2022. This analysis provides an objective mechanism to align the expectations of policy makers, managers and the public on when eradication of nutria from the entire Delmarva Peninsula should be declared successful.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1387-3547</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-1464</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10530-022-02855-x</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cham: Springer International Publishing</publisher><subject>Biomedical and Life Sciences ; Developmental Biology ; Ecology ; Eradication ; Freshwater & Marine Ecology ; Growth rate ; Life Sciences ; Myocastor coypus ; Original Paper ; Plant Sciences ; Population growth ; Questions ; Surveillance ; Surveys</subject><ispartof>Biological invasions, 2022-11, Vol.24 (11), p.3509-3521</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2022</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2022. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c293t-44746a4825fd656cf6fdeb39899813cb1093a4887a89825c75927d31f84cd3373</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c293t-44746a4825fd656cf6fdeb39899813cb1093a4887a89825c75927d31f84cd3373</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-7029-3636</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27903,27904</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Anderson, Dean P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pepper, Margaret A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Travers, Shelby</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Michaels, Trevor A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sullivan, Kevin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ramsey, David S. L.</creatorcontrib><title>Confirming the broadscale eradication success of nutria (Myocastor coypus) from the Delmarva Peninsula, USA</title><title>Biological invasions</title><addtitle>Biol Invasions</addtitle><description>Nutria (
Myocastor coypus
) were introduced to the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, USA in the 1940s. They reached peak densities in the late 1990s, causing massive wetland loss. Beginning in 2002, a systematic plan to eradicate nutria from the 1.7M ha Delmarva Peninsula was implemented. Since that time the nutria population has been effectively reduced, and no nutria have been detected since May 2015. A lack of detection does not equate with complete absence. We address the following three questions. (1) What is the expected probability of nutria eradication from the Delmarva Peninsula as of the end of 2020? (2) If the probability of eradication is below the management target of 0.95, how much more surveillance is required? (3) How sensitive is the estimated probability of eradication to varying levels of public surveillance and modelled population growth rates? These questions were addressed by employing a stochastic spatially-explicit surveillance model that uses data in which no nutria were detected to quantify the probability of complete absence (
PoA
) over the entire Delmarva Peninsula. We applied an analytical framework that decomposes the spatial risk of survivors and data into management zones, and took advantage of low-cost public reporting of nutria sightings. Active surveillance by the eradication program included detector dog and tracker surveys, shoreline surveys, detection with ground and water platforms (with hair snares), and camera traps. Results showed that the
PoA
increased with time and surveillance from a beginning
PoA
in May 2015 of 0.01 to a mean of 0.75 at the end of 2020. This indicates that the
PoA
on the Delmarva was well below the target threshold of 0.95 for declaring eradication success. However, given continued surveillance without detection, a
PoA
of 0.95 would be achieved by June 2022. This analysis provides an objective mechanism to align the expectations of policy makers, managers and the public on when eradication of nutria from the entire Delmarva Peninsula should be declared successful.</description><subject>Biomedical and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Developmental Biology</subject><subject>Ecology</subject><subject>Eradication</subject><subject>Freshwater & Marine Ecology</subject><subject>Growth rate</subject><subject>Life Sciences</subject><subject>Myocastor coypus</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Plant Sciences</subject><subject>Population growth</subject><subject>Questions</subject><subject>Surveillance</subject><subject>Surveys</subject><issn>1387-3547</issn><issn>1573-1464</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kE1LAzEQhoMoWKt_wFPAi4Kr-dxsjqV-QkVBew5pNqlbt0lNdqX998ZW8OZhmIF533eGB4BTjK4wQuI6YcQpKhAhuSrOi_UeGGAuaIFZyfbzTCtRUM7EIThKaYEQkgLxAfgYB--auGz8HHbvFs5i0HUyurXQRl03RndN8DD1xtiUYHDQ911sNDx_2gSjUxciNGGz6tMFdDEstyE3tl3q-KXhi_WNT32rL-H0dXQMDpxukz357UMwvbt9Gz8Uk-f7x_FoUhgiaVcwJlipWUW4q0teGle62s6orKSsMDUzjCTN60roSmaREVwSUVPsKmZqSgUdgrNd7iqGz96mTi1CH30-qYggXGAmMc4qslOZGFKK1qlVbPLbG4WR-oGqdlBVhqq2UNU6m-jOlLLYz238i_7H9Q1PMnpS</recordid><startdate>20221101</startdate><enddate>20221101</enddate><creator>Anderson, Dean P.</creator><creator>Pepper, Margaret A.</creator><creator>Travers, Shelby</creator><creator>Michaels, Trevor A.</creator><creator>Sullivan, Kevin</creator><creator>Ramsey, David S. L.</creator><general>Springer International Publishing</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>88A</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7029-3636</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20221101</creationdate><title>Confirming the broadscale eradication success of nutria (Myocastor coypus) from the Delmarva Peninsula, USA</title><author>Anderson, Dean P. ; Pepper, Margaret A. ; Travers, Shelby ; Michaels, Trevor A. ; Sullivan, Kevin ; Ramsey, David S. L.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c293t-44746a4825fd656cf6fdeb39899813cb1093a4887a89825c75927d31f84cd3373</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Biomedical and Life Sciences</topic><topic>Developmental Biology</topic><topic>Ecology</topic><topic>Eradication</topic><topic>Freshwater & Marine Ecology</topic><topic>Growth rate</topic><topic>Life Sciences</topic><topic>Myocastor coypus</topic><topic>Original Paper</topic><topic>Plant Sciences</topic><topic>Population growth</topic><topic>Questions</topic><topic>Surveillance</topic><topic>Surveys</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Anderson, Dean P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pepper, Margaret A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Travers, Shelby</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Michaels, Trevor A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sullivan, Kevin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ramsey, David S. L.</creatorcontrib><collection>Springer Nature Open Access Journals</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Biology Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><jtitle>Biological invasions</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Anderson, Dean P.</au><au>Pepper, Margaret A.</au><au>Travers, Shelby</au><au>Michaels, Trevor A.</au><au>Sullivan, Kevin</au><au>Ramsey, David S. L.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Confirming the broadscale eradication success of nutria (Myocastor coypus) from the Delmarva Peninsula, USA</atitle><jtitle>Biological invasions</jtitle><stitle>Biol Invasions</stitle><date>2022-11-01</date><risdate>2022</risdate><volume>24</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>3509</spage><epage>3521</epage><pages>3509-3521</pages><issn>1387-3547</issn><eissn>1573-1464</eissn><abstract>Nutria (
Myocastor coypus
) were introduced to the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, USA in the 1940s. They reached peak densities in the late 1990s, causing massive wetland loss. Beginning in 2002, a systematic plan to eradicate nutria from the 1.7M ha Delmarva Peninsula was implemented. Since that time the nutria population has been effectively reduced, and no nutria have been detected since May 2015. A lack of detection does not equate with complete absence. We address the following three questions. (1) What is the expected probability of nutria eradication from the Delmarva Peninsula as of the end of 2020? (2) If the probability of eradication is below the management target of 0.95, how much more surveillance is required? (3) How sensitive is the estimated probability of eradication to varying levels of public surveillance and modelled population growth rates? These questions were addressed by employing a stochastic spatially-explicit surveillance model that uses data in which no nutria were detected to quantify the probability of complete absence (
PoA
) over the entire Delmarva Peninsula. We applied an analytical framework that decomposes the spatial risk of survivors and data into management zones, and took advantage of low-cost public reporting of nutria sightings. Active surveillance by the eradication program included detector dog and tracker surveys, shoreline surveys, detection with ground and water platforms (with hair snares), and camera traps. Results showed that the
PoA
increased with time and surveillance from a beginning
PoA
in May 2015 of 0.01 to a mean of 0.75 at the end of 2020. This indicates that the
PoA
on the Delmarva was well below the target threshold of 0.95 for declaring eradication success. However, given continued surveillance without detection, a
PoA
of 0.95 would be achieved by June 2022. This analysis provides an objective mechanism to align the expectations of policy makers, managers and the public on when eradication of nutria from the entire Delmarva Peninsula should be declared successful.</abstract><cop>Cham</cop><pub>Springer International Publishing</pub><doi>10.1007/s10530-022-02855-x</doi><tpages>13</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7029-3636</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
fulltext | fulltext |
identifier | ISSN: 1387-3547 |
ispartof | Biological invasions, 2022-11, Vol.24 (11), p.3509-3521 |
issn | 1387-3547 1573-1464 |
language | eng |
recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2725714911 |
source | Springer Link |
subjects | Biomedical and Life Sciences Developmental Biology Ecology Eradication Freshwater & Marine Ecology Growth rate Life Sciences Myocastor coypus Original Paper Plant Sciences Population growth Questions Surveillance Surveys |
title | Confirming the broadscale eradication success of nutria (Myocastor coypus) from the Delmarva Peninsula, USA |
url | http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-23T12%3A07%3A23IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Confirming%20the%20broadscale%20eradication%20success%20of%20nutria%20(Myocastor%20coypus)%20from%20the%20Delmarva%20Peninsula,%20USA&rft.jtitle=Biological%20invasions&rft.au=Anderson,%20Dean%20P.&rft.date=2022-11-01&rft.volume=24&rft.issue=11&rft.spage=3509&rft.epage=3521&rft.pages=3509-3521&rft.issn=1387-3547&rft.eissn=1573-1464&rft_id=info:doi/10.1007/s10530-022-02855-x&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E2725714911%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c293t-44746a4825fd656cf6fdeb39899813cb1093a4887a89825c75927d31f84cd3373%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2725714911&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true |