Analysis of hydrological impacts caused by climatic and anthropogenic changes in Upper Grande River Basin, Brazil

This study quantified hydrological impacts caused by climate and anthropogenic changes in nine basins in the Upper Grande River Basin (URGB) region and estimated potential future impacts on runoff based on climate model projections. The Budyko framework was used as a conceptual approach to estimate...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental earth sciences 2022-11, Vol.81 (21), p.504, Article 504
Main Authors: Melo, Pâmela A., Alvarenga, Lívia A., Tomasella, Javier, de Mello, Carlos R., Martins, Minella A., Coelho, Gilberto
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anthropogenic changes
Anthropogenic factors
Biogeosciences
Climate and land use
Climate change
Climate Change and Society
Climate models
Decomposition
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth Surface Processes and Environment in a Changing World: Sustainability
Environmental impact
Environmental Science and Engineering
Future climates
Geochemistry
Geology
Human influences
Hydrologic analysis
Hydrologic models
Hydrologic regime
Hydrologic studies
Hydrology
Hydrology/Water Resources
Land use
Methods
Modelling
Original Article
River basins
Rivers
Runoff
Runoff variations
Terrestrial Pollution
Water availability
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:This study quantified hydrological impacts caused by climate and anthropogenic changes in nine basins in the Upper Grande River Basin (URGB) region and estimated potential future impacts on runoff based on climate model projections. The Budyko framework was used as a conceptual approach to estimate the causes of runoff variation by the decomposition method. Assuming that land use will not change in future, the runoff was estimated for 2006–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099 time-slices using regionalized projections from four different climate models. The decomposition method indicated a strong influence of both climate and land-use changes in the hydrological regime in the URGB, with the expansion of the agricultural areas being the most important driver of anthropogenic impacts. Future climate projection multi-model ensembles indicated a reduction in average runoff. The Budyko framework performance on future projections presented similar trends to hydrological modeling estimations from previous studies in the same region, indicating the suitability of the method as an additional tool for assessing future climate change impacts on water availability.
ISSN:1866-6280
1866-6299
DOI:10.1007/s12665-022-10631-2