The Value-Add of Tailored Seasonal Forecast Information for Industry Decision Making

There is a growing need for more systematic, robust, and comprehensive information on the value-add of climate services from both the demand and supply sides. There is a shortage of published value-add assessments that focus on the decision-making context, involve participatory or co-evaluation appr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate (Basel) 2022-10, Vol.10 (10), p.152
Main Authors: Goodess, Clare Mary, Troccoli, Alberto, Vasilakos, Nicholas, Dorling, Stephen, Steele, Edward, Amies, Jessica D., Brown, Hannah, Chowienczyk, Katie, Dyer, Emma, Formenton, Marco, Nicolosi, Antonio M., Calcagni, Elena, Cavedon, Valentina, Perez, Victor Estella, Geertsema, Gertie, Krikken, Folmer, Nielsen, Kristian Lautrup, Petitta, Marcello, Vidal, José, De Ruiter, Martijn, Savage, Ian, Upton, Jon
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Case studies
Climate
Cost analysis
Decision making
Decision trees
Econometrics
Economic analysis
Economic models
Economics
Methods
Seasonal forecasting
Supply & demand
Valuation methods
Water shortages
Weather forecasting
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Summary:There is a growing need for more systematic, robust, and comprehensive information on the value-add of climate services from both the demand and supply sides. There is a shortage of published value-add assessments that focus on the decision-making context, involve participatory or co-evaluation approaches, avoid over-simplification, and address both the quantitative (e.g., economic) and qualitative (e.g., social) values of climate services. The 12 case studies that formed the basis of the European Union-funded SECLI-FIRM project were co-designed by industrial and research partners in order to address these gaps while focusing on the use of tailored sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts in the energy and water industries. For eight of these case studies, it was possible to apply quantitative economic valuation methods: econometric modelling was used in five case studies while three case studies used a cost/loss (relative economic value) analysis and avoided costs. The case studies illustrated the challenges in attempting to produce quantitative estimates of the economic value-add of these forecasts. At the same time, many of them highlighted how practical value for users—transcending the actual economic value—can be enhanced; for example, through the provision of climate services as an extension to their current use of weather forecasts and with the visualisation tailored towards the user.
ISSN:2225-1154
2225-1154
DOI:10.3390/cli10100152