On the Expected Earnings Hypothesis Explanation of the Aggregate Returns–Earnings Association Puzzle

We provide strong support for the underappreciated expected earnings hypothesis of a negative correlation between aggregate stock returns and earnings. For 1970–2000, our powerful modeling strategy incorporating macroeconomic information reveals that aggregate returns are significantly and negativel...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of financial and quantitative analysis 2020-12, Vol.55 (8), p.2732-2763
Main Authors: Bailey, Warren, Lai, Huiwen
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accounting
Accounting changes
Decomposition
Earnings
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Hypotheses
Macroeconomics
Quantitative analysis
Securities markets
Volatility
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Summary:We provide strong support for the underappreciated expected earnings hypothesis of a negative correlation between aggregate stock returns and earnings. For 1970–2000, our powerful modeling strategy incorporating macroeconomic information reveals that aggregate returns are significantly and negatively correlated with expected aggregate earnings changes but uncorrelated with unexpected aggregate earnings changes. However, this negative correlation changes after 2000, perhaps from heightened volatility or accounting changes. We also show that underlying macroeconomic information explains the power of aggregate earnings to predict future gross domestic product growth.
ISSN:0022-1090
1756-6916
DOI:10.1017/S0022109019000875