Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia

• Published in: Sustainability 2022-12, Vol.14 (23), p.15707
• Main Authors: Sun, Changqing, Bao, Yulong, Vandansambuu, Battsengel, Bao, Yuhai
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accuracy; China; Ecological effects; Economic development; Environmental degradation; Forecasts and trends; Grassland ecology; Grasslands; Land degradation; Land resources; Land use; Landscape changes; Livestock; Loam soils; Markov chains; Mathematical models; Multiple criterion; Population density; Privatization; River ecology; Simulation; Spatial analysis; Sustainability; Sustainable development; System theory; Trends
• ISSN: 2071-1050; 2071-1050
• DOI: 10.3390/su142315707

Modeling and predicting land use/cover change (LUCC) and identifying its drivers have been a focus of research over the past few decades. In order to solve the problem of land resource degradation in typical pastoral areas, reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of LUCC, and the contradiction between man and land in sustainable development, we analyze the Gurvanbulag area of Bulgan province, Mongolia, where grassland degradation is relatively serious. The LUCC data in 2000, 2010 and 2019 were obtained through interpreting human-computer interaction. On this basis, the same binary logistic regression (BLR) results were input into the multi-criteria evaluation analytic hierarchy process (MCE_AHP) of CLUE-S and CA_Markov models. The Current Trends (CT) and Ecological Protection (EP) development scenarios were used to predict the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of LUCC in 2030 and 2040. The results show: (1) both models can effectively simulate the LUCC in 2019, and the CLUE-S model was significantly better than the CA_Markov model. (2) From 2000 to 2019, the LUCC in this region was dominated by a decrease in water and the growth of grassland and other land, indicating that the region is at the risk of land resource degradation. (3) In a multi-scenario development study, by 2030 and 2040, both models predicted that the EP development scenario is more effective in protecting the local ecological environment and it is easier to achieve the sustainability of land resources, than the CT development scenario. Combined with local policy demands and the prediction results of restraining land resource degradation, CLUE-S was significantly higher than the CA_Markov model, indicating that in typical pastoral areas, the former is more in line with the need for sustainable development of the local ecological environment than the latter.