Risk Level Assessment and CO Prediction of Underground Mines for Poisoning and Asphyxiation Accidents

• Published in: Sustainability 2022-12, Vol.14 (24), p.16640
• Main Authors: Liu, Jie, Ma, Qian, Wang, Wanqing, Yang, Guanding, Zhou, Haowen, Hu, Xinyue, Teng, Liangyun, Luo, Xuehua
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accident investigations; Accident prevention; Accidents; Accuracy; Algorithms; Autoregressive models; Carbon monoxide poisoning; Combinatorial analysis; Comparative analysis; Computer simulation; Computer-generated environments; Evaluation; Mines; Mines and mineral resources; Mining accidents & safety; Model accuracy; Poisoning; Predictions; Prevention; Risk assessment; Risk levels; Safety and security measures; Set theory; Social factors; Supervision; Sustainability; Time series; Underground mines; Ventilation
• ISSN: 2071-1050; 2071-1050
• DOI: 10.3390/su142416640

To effectively prevent the occurrence of poisoning and asphyxiation accidents in underground mines, this paper establishes an evaluation index system for the factors influencing accidents, constructs a combined assignment model to solve the problem of low accuracy of assignment results caused by a single algorithm, predicts the CO concentration after blasting because CO poisoning is the main cause of accidents, explores the accuracy of different time series prediction methods, and projects the required ventilation after blasting to ensure the safe operation of personnel. Firstly, starting from “man-machine-environment-management”, social factors are introduced to build an evaluation index system. Secondly, three combinatorial allocation models were compared, namely rough set theory–G1 method (RS-G1), entropy method–G1 method (Entropy-G1), and CRITIC method–G1 method (CRITIC-G1). The best model was selected and the allocation rating model was constructed in combination with the cloud model, and the mine risk level was evaluated by using the model. Thirdly, the GM(1,1) model, the quadratic exponential smoothing method, and the ARIMA model were compared by calculating posterior differences and errors, and the method with the highest accuracy was selected for predicting CO concentration. The results show that the inclusion of social assessment indexes in the assessment index system makes the consideration of assessment indexes more comprehensive. The RS-G1 combined assignment model achieved higher accuracy than other combined assignment models, and the GM(1,1) model had the highest accuracy and the best prediction effect. The results of the study can help provide targeted prevention and management measures for poisoning and asphyxiation accidents in underground mines.