Machine learning prediction of the MJO extends beyond one month

The prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a massive tropical weather event with vast global socio-economic impacts, has been infamously difficult with physics-based weather prediction models. Here we construct a machine learning model using reservoir computing technique that forecasts t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2022-12
Main Authors: Suematsu, Tamaki, Nakai, Kengo, Yoneda, Tsuyoshi, Takasuka, Daisuke, Jinno, Takuya, Saiki, Yoshitaka, Miura, Hiroaki
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric models
Economic impact
Economic models
Machine learning
Madden-Julian oscillation
Prediction models
Weather forecasting
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a massive tropical weather event with vast global socio-economic impacts, has been infamously difficult with physics-based weather prediction models. Here we construct a machine learning model using reservoir computing technique that forecasts the real-time multivariate MJO index (RMM), a macroscopic variable that represents the state of the MJO. The training data was refined by developing a novel filter that extracts the recurrency of MJO signals from the raw atmospheric data and selecting a suitable time-delay coordinate of the RMM. The model demonstrated the skill to forecast the state of MJO events for a month from the pre-developmental stages. Best-performing cases predicted the RMM sequence over two months, which exceeds the expected inherent predictability limit of the MJO.
ISSN:2331-8422