Pre‐instrumental perspectives on Arkansas River cross‐watershed flow variability

We present four reconstruction estimates of Arkansas River baseflow and streamflow using a total of 78 tree‐ring chronologies for three streamflow gages, geographically spanning the headwaters in Colorado to near the confluence of the Arkansas‐Mississippi rivers. The estimates represent different se...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2023-02, Vol.59 (1), p.1-15
Main Authors: Torbenson, Max C. A., Stahle, David W., Howard, Ian M., Blackstock, Joshua M., Cleaveland, Malcolm K., Stagge, James H.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Catchment area
Catchments
Deduction
Downstream
Environmental risk
Estimates
extremes
Flooding
Floods
flow separation
Headwaters
High flow
Low flow
Moisture effects
paleoclimatology
River catchments
River discharge
River flow
River valleys
Rivers
Soil moisture
Stream discharge
Stream flow
tree rings
Tributaries
Variability
Watersheds
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Summary:We present four reconstruction estimates of Arkansas River baseflow and streamflow using a total of 78 tree‐ring chronologies for three streamflow gages, geographically spanning the headwaters in Colorado to near the confluence of the Arkansas‐Mississippi rivers. The estimates represent different seasonal windows, which are dictated by the shared limiting forcing of precipitation on seasonal tree growth and soil moisture—and subsequently on the variability of Arkansas River discharge. Flow extremes that were higher and lower than what has been observed in the instrumental era are recorded in each of the four reconstructions. Years of concurrent, cross‐basin (all sites) low flow appear more frequently during the 20th and 21st Centuries compared to any period since 1600 A.D., however, no significant trend in cross‐basin low flow is observed. As the most downstream major tributary of the Mississippi River, the Arkansas River directly influences flood risk in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Estimates of extreme high flow in downstream reconstructions coincide with specific years of historic flooding documented in New Orleans, Louisiana, just upstream of the Mississippi River Delta. By deduction, Mississippi River flooding in years of low Arkansas River flow imply exceptional flooding contributions from the Upper Mississippi River catchments.
ISSN:1093-474X
1752-1688
DOI:10.1111/1752-1688.13068