Ad hocness, accommodation and consilience: a Bayesian account

All of us, including scientists, make judgments about what is true or false, probable or improbable. And in the process, we frequently appeal to concepts such as evidential support or explanation. Bayesian philosophers of science have given illuminating formal accounts of these concepts. This paper...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Synthese (Dordrecht) 2023-02, Vol.201 (2), p.56, Article 56
Main Author: Wilcox, John
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Education
Epistemology
Evidentiality
Evolution & development
Hypotheses
Logic
Metaphysics
Original Research
Philosophers
Philosophy
Philosophy of Language
Philosophy of Science
Probability
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Summary:All of us, including scientists, make judgments about what is true or false, probable or improbable. And in the process, we frequently appeal to concepts such as evidential support or explanation. Bayesian philosophers of science have given illuminating formal accounts of these concepts. This paper aims to follow in their footsteps, providing a novel formal account of various additional concepts: the likelihood-prior trade-off, successful accommodation of evidence, ad hocness, and, finally, consilience—sometimes also called “unification”. Using these accounts, I also provide a new Bayesian analysis of how someone such as Charles Darwin hypothetically could have reasoned in favor of evolution over special creationism. Lastly, I explore how these accounts relate to other topics and accounts in philosophy, and I chart out some areas for further research.
ISSN:1573-0964
0039-7857
1573-0964
DOI:10.1007/s11229-023-04036-2