Measuring and Forecasting the Rise of China: Reality over Image

The rise of Chinese capabilities relative to those of the United States has received widespread attention. Some argue that a transition in relative capabilities has already occurred, others that it is unlikely within this century. This article presents a new multidimensional measure of relative nati...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of contemporary China 2023-03, Vol.32 (140), p.191-206
Main Authors: Moyer, Jonathan D., Meisel, Collin J., Matthews, Austin S.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Power
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Summary:The rise of Chinese capabilities relative to those of the United States has received widespread attention. Some argue that a transition in relative capabilities has already occurred, others that it is unlikely within this century. This article presents a new multidimensional measure of relative national capabilities and forecasts using the International Futures model across 29 alternative scenarios. This article finds that Chinese capabilities surpass the United States in 26 scenarios before 2060, with the most frequent period of power transition being the early 2040s. This analysis offers an opportunity for leaders to reconcile national images with reality, potentially reducing the risk of conflict associated with great power transition.
ISSN:1067-0564
1469-9400
DOI:10.1080/10670564.2022.2071879