Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios: Results from dynamical downscaling simulations

The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) driven by data from the CMIP5 Earth System Model HadGEM2‐ES was used to simulate daily precipitation over the tropical Americas for both current and future climate, including distinct scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and d...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of climatology 2023-02, Vol.43 (2), p.787-803
Main Authors: Costa, Alexandre Araújo, Guimarães, Sullyandro Oliveira, Sales, Domingo Cassain, Chagas Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco, Marinho, Marcos Wender Santiago, Pereira, José Marcelo Rodrigues, Martins, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues, Silva, Emerson Mariano
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric models
Climate change
Climate change scenarios
Climate models
CMIP5
Daily precipitation
Dry spells
Extreme weather
Future climates
Precipitation
precipitation extremes
RAMS dynamical downscaling
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
tropical Americas
Wet spells
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Summary:The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) driven by data from the CMIP5 Earth System Model HadGEM2‐ES was used to simulate daily precipitation over the tropical Americas for both current and future climate, including distinct scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and different time horizons (short‐term, mid‐term and long‐term changes). The major objective was to evaluate possible future changes in extreme events, with emphasis on the intensity of precipitation events and the duration of wet and dry spells. According to RAMS, longer dry spells are expected over most regions of the tropical Americas in the future, with indications for Northeast Brazil, Caribbean, Northern Amazon, and shorter wet spells over Central America and Amazon. With the exception of the Caribbean, there is a general tendency towards the increased frequency of intense precipitation in the tropical Americas. Precipitation extreme events over tropical Americas are likely to dramatically increase in the Western Amazon and moderately increase in Northeast Brazil. Heavy emission scenarios project longer dry spells (CDD) over Northeast Brazil, Caribbean, Northern Amazon, and shorter wet spells (CWD) over Central America and Amazon.
ISSN:0899-8418
1097-0088
DOI:10.1002/joc.7828