Understanding the Factors that Affect the Incidence of Bellwether Counties: A Conditional Probability Model

We update previous work on bellwethers in U.S. presidential elections. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we see a striking decline in the proportion of bellwethers. We provide a model linking this decline to conditional probability calculations...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Political research quarterly 2023-03, Vol.76 (1), p.119-126
Main Authors: Grofman, Bernard, Chen, Haotian
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Candidates
Competition
Competitiveness
Counties
Election results
Polarization
Presidential elections
Probability
Voter behavior
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Summary:We update previous work on bellwethers in U.S. presidential elections. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we see a striking decline in the proportion of bellwethers. We provide a model linking this decline to conditional probability calculations that recognize that (a) a county’s predictive success likelihood varies depending upon whether the winning candidate is going to be a Democrat or going to be a Republican; (b) as polarization rises, the number of potential bellwethers declines; and (c) election competitiveness can matter, but closer elections do not guarantee a greater likelihood of bellwethers. Indeed, we now have very close elections but a very low likelihood of bellwethers.
ISSN:1065-9129
1938-274X
DOI:10.1177/10659129211057601