Developing hydrological and reservoir models under deep uncertainty of climate change: robustness of water supply reservoir

Adaptation of water resources to climate change, drought management strategies, and hydrological and reservoir modelling have become serious issues in the context of climate change uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to introduce methods and tools for hydrological analysis and robust reservoir per...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water science & technology. Water supply 2019-12, Vol.19 (8), p.2222-2230
Main Authors: Marton, Daniel, Knoppová, Kateřina
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Analysis
Calibration
Climate change
Climate models
Context
Datasets
Drought
Hydrologic data
Hydrological analysis
Hydrology
Methods
Outflow
Performance evaluation
Reliability
Reliability analysis
Reservoir performance
Reservoir storage
River basins
Robustness
Simulation
Simulation models
Software utilities
Storage capacity
Storage conditions
Uncertainty
Water balance
Water outflow
Water resources
Water storage
Water supply
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Summary:Adaptation of water resources to climate change, drought management strategies, and hydrological and reservoir modelling have become serious issues in the context of climate change uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to introduce methods and tools for hydrological analysis and robust reservoir performance evaluation in this time of deep uncertainty. Newly developed lumped water balance and reservoir simulation models will be used to perform hydrological analysis, and a robust reservoir storage capacity reliability assessment will also be conducted. The hydrological data in relation to climate change will be constructed using two climatological datasets created by statistical downscaling tools LARS WG and ENSEMBLE Downscaling Portal. The hydrological analysis and the temporal reliability of the assessment of reservoir storage capacity and robustness in the context of climate change uncertainty will be presented as a case study of the Vir I reservoir and the Svratka River basin in the Czech Republic, in central Europe. The resulting models show a decrease in long-term mean flow, ranging from 6% to 32%, and in reservoir outflow from 1.5% to 26%, depending on the timescale, downscaling tools and emission scenarios.
ISSN:1606-9749
1607-0798
DOI:10.2166/ws.2019.102