Investigating the effects of climate change on future hydrological drought in mountainous basins using SWAT model based on CMIP5 model

Since climate change is a major challenge that affects the environment, especially the hydrological flow, this research has used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to study the climate change effects on the runoff in Alvand mountain basin in Iran. The SWAT model calibration was done based on...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2023-03, Vol.37 (3), p.849-875
Main Authors: Samavati, Alireza, Babamiri, Omid, Rezai, Yousef, Heidarimozaffar, Morteza
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Annual runoff
Aquatic Pollution
Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate models
Climatic conditions
Computational Intelligence
Computer Science
Drought
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environment
Hydrologic models
Hydrology
Math. Appl. in Environmental Science
Model accuracy
Original Paper
Physics
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
Rain
Rainfall
Runoff
Soil water
Statistics for Engineering
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
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Summary:Since climate change is a major challenge that affects the environment, especially the hydrological flow, this research has used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to study the climate change effects on the runoff in Alvand mountain basin in Iran. The SWAT model calibration was done based on the SUFI-2 algorithm and the validation results for a 20-year prediction period (2020–2040) showed that the model had high accuracy in simulating the runoffs. CMIP5 models were used to predict the basin’s temperature and rainfall (the best scenario was Miroc5) and the results showed that the basin’s future climate conditions increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall were appropriate. According to Miroc5 (RCP8.5), the annual runoff in the mentioned period would decrease by 8.36% compared to the past. In a seasonal scale, the largest runoff reduction would be 75% in summer (under the Miroc5 (RCP4.5)), and in a monthly scale, it would be 79% in April increasing dramatically to reach 335% in September (under Miroc5 (RCP8.5)). The trend of the future runoff was investigated using the Mann–Kendall model and the Gresson estimation method. Results showed that there would be no significant trend in the mentioned period and the trend of the future drought intensity would be increasing under all studied scenarios.
ISSN:1436-3240
1436-3259
DOI:10.1007/s00477-022-02319-7