Addressing challenges in uncertainty quantification: the case of geohazard assessments

We analyse some of the challenges in quantifying uncertainty when using geohazard models. Despite the availability of recently developed, sophisticated ways to parameterise models, a major remaining challenge is constraining the many model parameters involved. Additionally, there are challenges rela...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geoscientific Model Development 2023-03, Vol.16 (6), p.1601-1615
Main Authors: Cardenas, Ibsen Chivata, Aven, Terje, Flage, Roger
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Boundary conditions
Geological hazards
Geology
Probability
Probability distribution
Risk assessment
Uncertainty
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Summary:We analyse some of the challenges in quantifying uncertainty when using geohazard models. Despite the availability of recently developed, sophisticated ways to parameterise models, a major remaining challenge is constraining the many model parameters involved. Additionally, there are challenges related to the credibility of predictions required in the assessments, the uncertainty of input quantities, and the conditional nature of the quantification, making it dependent on the choices and assumptions analysts make. Addressing these challenges calls for more insightful approaches yet to be developed. However, as discussed in this paper, clarifications and reinterpretations of some fundamental concepts and practical simplifications may be required first. The research thus aims to strengthen the foundation and practice of geohazard risk assessments.
ISSN:1991-9603
1991-959X
1991-962X
1991-9603
1991-962X
DOI:10.5194/gmd-16-1601-2023