External Threats and Public Opinion: The East Asian Security Environment and Japanese Views on the Nuclear Option

The Japanese public has been assumed to possess a deeply ingrained aversion toward the acquisition of nuclear weapons. We employ a survey experiment to ascertain whether this aversion is unconditional or may erode in the face of hypothetical deterioration in Japan's security situation, and in p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of East Asian studies 2023-03, Vol.23 (1), p.23-44
Main Authors: Matsumura, Naoko, Tago, Atsushi, Grieco, Joseph M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Arms control & disarmament
Attainment
Attitudes
Demography
Deterioration
Individual differences
International aspects
International security
Military aspects
Nuclear proliferation
Nuclear tests
Nuclear weapons
Public opinion
Public opinion surveys
Security
Security, International
Threats
Threats (Law)
Weapons testing
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Summary:The Japanese public has been assumed to possess a deeply ingrained aversion toward the acquisition of nuclear weapons. We employ a survey experiment to ascertain whether this aversion is unconditional or may erode in the face of hypothetical deterioration in Japan's security situation, and in particular a hypothetical withdrawal of the US security-nuclear umbrella, increased North Korean nuclear weapons testing activities, and movement by South Korea toward the attainment of a nuclear arsenal. We find that the Japanese nuclear aversion may come under stress in the face of such developments. Additionally, we find that the elasticity of Japanese attitudes with respect to the nuclear option in the face of external security deterioration may be associated with an important individual-level demographic characteristic, namely, gender.
ISSN:1598-2408
2234-6643
DOI:10.1017/jea.2022.40