Staged HIV transmission and treatment in a dynamic model with long-term partnerships

The transmission dynamics of HIV are closely tied to the duration and overlap of sexual partnerships. We develop an autonomous population model that can account for the possibilities of an infection from either a casual sexual partner or a long-term partner who was either infected at the start of th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of mathematical biology 2023-05, Vol.86 (5), p.74, Article 74
Main Authors: Gurski, Katharine, Hoffman, Kathleen
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applications of Mathematics
Condoms
Disease transmission
Dynamic models
Highly active antiretroviral therapy
HIV
HIV Infections - drug therapy
HIV Infections - epidemiology
HIV Infections - prevention & control
Human immunodeficiency virus
Humans
Incidence
Infections
Mathematical and Computational Biology
Mathematics
Mathematics and Statistics
Parameter sensitivity
Partnerships
Sensitivity analysis
Sexual Behavior
Sexual Partners
Sexually transmitted diseases
STD
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Summary:The transmission dynamics of HIV are closely tied to the duration and overlap of sexual partnerships. We develop an autonomous population model that can account for the possibilities of an infection from either a casual sexual partner or a long-term partner who was either infected at the start of the partnership or has been newly infected since the onset of the partnership. The impact of the long-term partnerships on the rate of infection is captured by calculating the expected values of the rate of infection from these extended contacts. The model includes three stages of infectiousness: acute, chronic, and virally suppressed. We calculate HIV incidence and the fraction of new infections attributed to casual contacts and long-term partnerships allowing for variability in condom usage, the effect of achieving and maintaining viral suppression, and early intervention by beginning HAART during the acute phase of infection. We present our results using data on MSM HIV transmission from the CDC in the U.S. While the acute stage is the most infectious, the majority of the new infections will be transmitted by long-term partners in the chronic stage when condom use is infrequent as is common in long-term relationships. Time series analysis of the solution, as well as parameter sensitivity analysis, are used to determine effective intervention strategies.
ISSN:0303-6812
1432-1416
DOI:10.1007/s00285-023-01885-w