On the Strength and Duration of Solar Cycle 25: A Novel Quantile-Based Superposed-Epoch Analysis

The sunspot number (SSN) is an important – albeit nuanced – parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum, can have important implications for space-weather planning. Forecasts for the str...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Solar physics 2023-05, Vol.298 (5), p.66, Article 66
Main Author: Riley, Pete
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Astrophysics and Astroparticles
Atmospheric Sciences
Magnetic fields
Mathematical models
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Solar activity
Solar cycle
Solar maximum
Solar physics
Space Exploration and Astronautics
Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics
Space weather
Sunspot numbers
Sunspots
Weather forecasting
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Summary:The sunspot number (SSN) is an important – albeit nuanced – parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum, can have important implications for space-weather planning. Forecasts for the strength of Solar Cycle 25 have varied considerably, from being very weak to one of the strongest cycles in recorded history. In this study, we develop a novel quantile-based superposed-epoch analysis that currently predicts that Solar Cycle 25 will be very modest (within the lowest 25th percentile of all numbered cycles), with a monthly averaged (13-month average) peak of ≈ 130 (110) likely occurring in December 2024. We validate the model by performing retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) for the previous 24 cycles, finding that it outperforms the baseline (reference) model (the “average cycle”) 75% of the time.
ISSN:0038-0938
1573-093X
DOI:10.1007/s11207-023-02165-y