A model instability issue in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System version 16 and potential solutions

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System version 16 (GFSv16) encountered a few model instability failures during the pre-operational real-time parallel runs. The model forecasts failed when an extremely small thickness depth appeared at the model's lowest...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geoscientific Model Development 2023-06, Vol.16 (11), p.3263-3274
Main Authors: Zhou, Xiaqiong, Juang, Hann-Ming Henry
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Advection
Boundary conditions
Cyclones
Depth
Dynamic height
Ensemble forecasting
Failure analysis
Geopotential
Geopotential height
Gravity waves
Horizontal integration
Hurricanes
Instability
Interfaces
Mathematical models
Modelling
Mountains
Parameter modification
Physics
Real time operation
Stability
Thickness
Tropical cyclones
Weather forecasting
Winds
Citations: Items that this one cites
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System version 16 (GFSv16) encountered a few model instability failures during the pre-operational real-time parallel runs. The model forecasts failed when an extremely small thickness depth appeared at the model's lowest layer during the landfall of strong tropical cyclones. A quick solution was to increase the value of minimum thickness depth, an arbitrary parameter introduced to prevent numerical instability. This modification solved the model's numerical instability with a small impact on forecast skills. It was adopted in GFSv16 to implement this version of the operational system as planned.
ISSN:1991-9603
1991-959X
1991-962X
1991-9603
1991-962X
DOI:10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023