Impact of a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme on Warm Season Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

• Published in: Monthly weather review 2016-05, Vol.144 (5), p.1887-1908
• Main Authors: Duda, Jeffrey D, Wang, Xuguang, Kong, Fanyou, Xue, Ming, Berner, Judith
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Backscatter; Backscattering; Boundary conditions; Convection; Energy; Ensemble forecasting; Fields; Gravitational waves; Kinetic energy; Mathematical models; Methods; Physics; Precipitation; Precipitation forecasting; Probability theory; Stochasticity; Studies; Verification; Warm seasons; Weather; Weather forecasting; Winds
• ISSN: 0027-0644; 1520-0493
• DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0092.1

The efficacy of a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme to improve convection-allowing probabilistic forecasts was studied. While SKEB has been explored for coarse, convection-parameterizing models, studies of SKEB for convective scales are limited. Three ensembles were compared. The SKMP ensemble used mixed physics with the SKEB scheme, whereas the MP ensemble was configured identically but without using the SKEB scheme. The SK ensemble used the SKEB scheme with no physics diversity. The experiment covered May 2013 over the central United States on a 4-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model domain. The SKEB scheme was successful in increasing the spread in all fields verified, especially mid- and upper-tropospheric fields. Additionally, the rmse of the ensemble mean was maintained or reduced, in some cases significantly. Rank histograms in the SKMP ensemble were flatter than those in the MP ensemble, indicating the SKEB scheme produces a less underdispersive forecast distribution. Some improvement was seen in probabilistic precipitation forecasts, particularly when examining Brier scores. Verification against surface observations agree with verification against Rapid Refresh (RAP) model analyses, showing that probabilistic forecasts for 2-m temperature, 2-m dewpoint, and 10-m winds were also improved using the SKEB scheme. The SK ensemble gave competitive forecasts for some fields. The SK ensemble had reduced spread compared to the MP ensemble at the surface due to the lack of physics diversity. These results suggest the potential utility of mixed physics plus the SKEB scheme in the design of convection-allowing ensemble forecasts.