A multi-model framework to assess the role of R&D towards a decarbonized energy system

• Published in: Climatic change 2023-07, Vol.176 (7), p.82, Article 82
• Main Authors: Nogueira, Larissa, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Reis, Lara Aleluia, Drouet, Laurent, Vrontisi, Zoi, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Panos, Evangelos, van der Zwaan, Bob
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Alternative energy; Atmospheric Sciences; Batteries; Capital costs; Carbon; Carbon capture and storage; Carbon content; Carbon dioxide; Carbon sequestration; Clean technology; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Decarbonization; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Electric vehicles; Energy; Energy costs; Energy transition; Investments; Mitigation; Modelling; Offshore; Offshore energy sources; R&D; Research & development; Solar energy; Vehicles; Wind power
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03553-w

Research and development (R&D) investments foster green innovation, which is key to decarbonize the energy system and attain long-term climate goals. In this paper, we link three integrated assessment models that possess a macroeconomic framework—WITCH, MERGE-ETL, and GEM-E3—with the bottom-up technology-rich energy system model TIAM-ECN, in order to quantitatively explore how investments in R&D can support deep decarbonization pathways. We take advantage of the endogenous technological learning feature of the first three models to derive R&D-induced capital cost reductions for strategic clusters of low-carbon technologies: solar energy, on- and offshore wind energy, carbon capture and storage, advanced fuels, and batteries for electric vehicles. We examine scenarios with different assumptions on CO 2 mitigation and R&D policy. These assumptions are harmonized among our four models, and capital cost reductions driven by R&D are exogenously incorporated in TIAM-ECN, which enables a detailed assessment of the required energy transition. Our results show that the stringency of climate change mitigation policy remains the key factor influencing the diffusion of low-carbon technologies, while R&D can support mitigation goals and influence the contribution of different types of technologies. If implemented effectively and without worldwide barriers to knowledge spill-overs, R&D facilitates the deployment of mature technologies such as solar, wind, and electric vehicles, and enables lower overall energy system costs.