Probability bias is an independent correlate of depressive symptoms

People high in depressive symptoms show probability bias : they think negative events are relatively likely, especially compared with positive events. However, their past- and future-related thinking also has other distinctive characteristics, so we wondered how independent probability bias is from...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Motivation and emotion 2023-08, Vol.47 (4), p.638-649
Main Authors: Booth, Robert W., Aydin, Cagla, Ulupunar, Ekin, Nadeem, Mahnoor
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anxiety
Behavioral Science and Psychology
Bias
Clinical Psychology
Clinical research
Imagery
Individual differences
Memory
Mental depression
Negative events
Optimism
Original Paper
Personality and Social Psychology
Pessimism
Positive life events
Probability
Psychology
Rumination
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Summary:People high in depressive symptoms show probability bias : they think negative events are relatively likely, especially compared with positive events. However, their past- and future-related thinking also has other distinctive characteristics, so we wondered how independent probability bias is from these other phenomena. In two samples of Turkish students ( N s = 163 and 179), we found that depressive symptoms were the strongest predictor of probability bias even when rumination, intrusive future imagery, overgeneral memory and anxiety were controlled in our models; furthermore, probability bias remained a significant predictor of depression when these other variables were controlled. These results suggest that a relatively negative probability bias is an independent correlate of depressive symptoms, and is not simply confounded with other past- or future thinking-related phenomena that have been observed in more depressed individuals. We hope that future individual differences and clinical research will focus more on depression-related probability bias.
ISSN:0146-7239
1573-6644
DOI:10.1007/s11031-023-10023-4