Explaining the Statistical Properties of Salt Intrusion in Estuaries Using a Stochastic Dynamical Modeling Approach

Determining the statistical properties of salt intrusion in estuaries on sub‐tidal time scales is a substantial challenge in environmental modeling. To study these properties, we here extend an idealized deterministic salt intrusion model to a stochastic one by including a stochastic model of the ri...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water resources research 2023-07, Vol.59 (7), p.n/a
Main Authors: Dijkstra, Henk A., Biemond, Bouke, Lee, Jiyong, Swart, Huib E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Additives
Dynamic models
Environment models
Environmental modeling
Estuaries
Estuarine dynamics
Intrusion
Isohalines
Modelling
Probability density function
Probability density functions
Probability theory
River discharge
River flow
Rivers
salt intrusion length
Salts
San Francisco Bay
Skewness
Statistical analysis
Statistical methods
Statistics
stochastic modeling
Stochastic models
Stochasticity
Water discharge
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Summary:Determining the statistical properties of salt intrusion in estuaries on sub‐tidal time scales is a substantial challenge in environmental modeling. To study these properties, we here extend an idealized deterministic salt intrusion model to a stochastic one by including a stochastic model of the river discharge. In the river discharge model, two types of stochastic forcing are used: one independent (additive noise) and one dependent (multiplicative noise) on the river discharge state. Each type of forcing results in a non‐Gaussian response in the salt intrusion length, which we consider here as the distance of the 2 psu isohaline contour to the estuary mouth. The salt intrusion model including both types of stochastic forcing in the river discharge provides a satisfactory explanation of the multi‐year statistics of observed salt intrusion lengths in the San Francisco Bay estuary, in particular for the skewness of its probability density function. Key Points A stochastic dynamical model is developed to explain the statistics of salt intrusion in estuaries Additive (multiplicative) noise in river discharge induces a positive (negative) skewness in the salt intrusion length statistics Both additive and multiplicative noise in river discharge are important forthe salt intrusion statistics in the San Francisco Bay estuary
ISSN:0043-1397
1944-7973
DOI:10.1029/2023WR034454