Characteristics and propagation of meteorological and hydrological droughts in eastern Gansu, a typical semi‐arid region, China

• Published in: International journal of climatology 2023-10, Vol.43 (12), p.5327-5347
• Main Authors: Zou, Rui, Yin, Yixing, Wang, Xiaojun, Zhang, Zengxin, Ma, Xieyao, Liu, Mengyang, Ullah, Irfan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anthropogenic factors; Arid regions; Arid zones; Bayesian analysis; Drought; Evapotranspiration; Evapotranspiration-precipitation relationships; Hydrologic drought; Hydrology; Precipitation; Probability theory; Propagation; Resource consumption; Runoff; Runoff coefficient; Standardized precipitation index; Stream discharge; Stream flow; Water consumption; Water resources; Water resources planning; Watersheds
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.8149

The meteorological drought (MD) is the precursor of the hydrological drought (HD), and understanding the propagation process from MD to HD is of great significance for the early warning of HD. Based on the theory of run and Bayesian networks, this study uses the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized streamflow index (SSI) to explore the characteristics and propagation of MD and HD in the regions of eastern Gansu, China. The results indicate that: (1) The region was mainly wet (dry) and the wetness (dryness) was stronger before (after) 2000 when reflected by SSI. The frequency is higher based on SPI and SPEI than that based on SSI, while the duration and magnitude are lower than those based on SSI. (2) The propagation time from MD to HD is generally within 1–10 months. After the occurrence of a certain level of MD, it is most likely to propagate to HD events that are relatively weaker than the MD. Besides, the higher the intensity level of MD, the shorter the propagation time to HD, and the shorter for cumulative occurrence probability of HD to approach 1.0. (3) The increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient may contribute to the dryness after 2000. Moreover, the weakened propagation from MD to HD may be due to the rapid increase of water resource consumption caused by intensive anthropogenic activities in the study area. From the above results, this study found some propagation characteristics from MD to HD in a semi‐arid and semi‐humid watershed, which can provide a supplement for revealing the drought mechanism and can assist in the management and planning of water resources in China.