Migration response to drought in Mali. An analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period

This paper combines population and climate data to estimate the volume of migration induced by the drought events that have hit Mali since the late 1980s. The results show that droughts have had the effect of decreasing net migration rates in the affected localities. This is true for both men and wo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environment and development economics 2023-04, Vol.28 (2), p.171-190
Main Authors: Defrance, Dimitri, Delesalle, Esther, Gubert, Flore
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Arid zones
Censuses
Climate change
Climatic data
Drought
Emigration
Households
Migration
Mobility
Natural disasters
Panel data
Population growth
Precipitation
Rainfall
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Summary:This paper combines population and climate data to estimate the volume of migration induced by the drought events that have hit Mali since the late 1980s. The results show that droughts have had the effect of decreasing net migration rates in the affected localities. This is true for both men and women, regardless of their age. The effect of drought episodes, however, is found to differ according to localities and households’ capacity to adapt to climatic constraints: it fades in localities characterized by more diversified crops and in areas that receive more rainfall on average. Climate shocks also had an impact on international mobility: over the 2004–2009 period, around 2300 additional departures per year can be attributed to the droughts that hit Mali during the 2000s. We forecast that, under different climate scenarios and population growth projections, mobility induced by drought events will substantially grow in the next decades.
ISSN:1355-770X
1469-4395
DOI:10.1017/S1355770X22000183