Enhancing Sustainable Dairy Industry Growth through Cold-Supply-Chain-Integrated Production Forecasting

Cold supply chains (CSCs) are critical for preserving the quality and safety of perishable products like milk, which plays a vital role in the daily lives of a vast population, especially in countries like India. This research centers on sustainable milk production in Northern India, with priorities...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2023-11, Vol.15 (22), p.16102
Main Authors: Kashyap, Abhishek, Shukla, Om Ji, Jha, Bal Krishna, Ramtiyal, Bharti, Soni, Gunjan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Dairy industry
Dairy products
Decision making
Empowerment
Environmental sustainability
Forecasting
India
Industry forecasts
Logistics
Milk
Milk production
Natural resources
Sustainability
Trends
Trinidad and Tobago
United Kingdom
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Summary:Cold supply chains (CSCs) are critical for preserving the quality and safety of perishable products like milk, which plays a vital role in the daily lives of a vast population, especially in countries like India. This research centers on sustainable milk production in Northern India, with priorities of ensuring efficiency and waste reduction within the cold supply chain. Leveraging data from a prominent North India-based dairy company, Company ‘X’, an ARIMA model is applied for predicting monthly milk production trends. Utilizing the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (IBM SPSS STATISTICS 20) software, the study forecasts Company ‘X’s monthly milk production and identifies four distinct ARIMA models based on the autocorrelation function (ACF) and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF). By comparing predicted and actual milk production values (April–October 2021), sustainability metrics are integrated into ARIMA forecasts. Implications for the dairy sector’s sustainability and alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are assessed through error terms such as R squared (R2) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The study promotes sustainable milk production practices in Northern India’s dairy sector, resonating with the SDGs to optimize demand–supply dynamics and foster a more environmentally conscious dairy industry.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su152216102