Applying Dynamic U-Value Measurements for State Forecasting in Buildings

• Published in: Latvian Journal of Physics and Technical Sciences 2023-12, Vol.60 (s6), p.81-94
• Main Authors: Telicko, J., Jakovics, A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Algorithms; Automatic control; Building management systems; Buildings; Complex systems; Complexity; Controllability; Empirical analysis; Energy efficiency; Green buildings; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Moisture; Monitoring; Neural networks; Reduction
• ISSN: 2255-8896; 0868-8257; 2255-8896; 2199-6156
• DOI: 10.2478/lpts-2023-0047

In the present day, monitoring and automated control stand as pivotal factors for the energy-efficient and comfortable operation of buildings. As the demand for indoor climate control grows, building management systems have become more intricate, making their control challenging due to the increasing number of controllable elements. Replacing manual human analysis of complex systems can be achieved through the utilization of algorithms like model-based control. It is important to note that performance of this method usually relies on the accuracy of neural network-based building state forecasts. Studying the internal dynamics of climate as influenced by temperature changes necessitates a brief record of measurements, whereas evaluating structural modifications through moisture transfer demands data covering a more extended period. Neural networks such as Long Short-Term Memory have the potential to lose information within lengthy time-series data, and the intricate nature of moisture transfer further adds complexity to the task of approximating functions, ultimately leading to a reduction in energy efficiency. In order to improve the precision of indoor climate predictions, our suggestion involves not only assessing changes in temperature but also considering alterations in U-values triggered by temperature variations and moisture transfer. Our preliminary assessment of the influence of U-value, conducted through numerical simulations using WUFI6, exposes variations of up to 10 % of U-value in certain scenarios. Dealing with these computations in real time using physical models proves to be demanding due to computational requirements and limited data availability. To tackle this issue, we present an innovative preprocessing approach for on-the-fly evaluation of U-values. Empirical trials involving three years of monitoring data indicate that the suggested technique led to an approximate 8 % reduction in the average mean squared error of climate predictions based on neural network models, in specific instances.