Multiweek tropical cyclone prediction for the Southern Hemisphere in ACCESS‐S2: Maintaining operational skill and continuity of service

• Published in: Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 2023-10, Vol.149 (757), p.3401-3422
• Main Authors: Camp, J., Gregory, P., Marshall, A. G., Greenslade, J., Wheeler, M. C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Access; Calibration; Climate science; Climatology; Cyclones; ensembles; Frequency dependence; Hurricanes; Madden–Julian Oscillation; Meteorology; multiweek forecasting; southern hemisphere; subseasonal; Tropical cyclone forecasting; Tropical cyclones
• ISSN: 0035-9009; 1477-870X
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.4563

The skill of subseasonal (multiweek) forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence over the Southern Hemisphere is examined in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) multiweek to seasonal prediction system, ACCESS‐S2. Relative to its predecessor, ACCESS‐S1, ACCESS‐S2 shows improved biases in spatial TC frequency in the South Pacific and Southwest Indian Ocean. However, there is no improvement to the known negative bias in TC frequency off the coast of NW Australia. The ability of ACCESS‐S2 to provide probabilistic forecasts of TC occurrence for the Southern Hemisphere on multiweek timescales is examined using reliability measures and Brier skill scores. For the period November–February 1990–2012, both ACCESS‐S1 and ACCESS‐S2 show positive skill relative to climatology for calibrated forecasts out to week 5. However, the skill of ACCESS‐S2 is slightly reduced compared to ACCESS‐S1 at all lead times, which may be due to the fewer number of ensemble members available. For the full ACCESS‐S2 hindcast period, November–April 1981–2018, ACCESS‐S2 again shows positive skill of calibrated forecasts over climatology out to week 5. For weeks 1–2, skill is reduced compared to the shorter 1990–2012 period; whereas it is marginally improved for longer lead times (weeks 3–5). Use of lagged ensembles, an alternative linear regression calibration, as well as removing weaker model TCs were examined to potentially improve the skill of ACCESS‐S2 forecasts; however, none of these methods were able to significantly increase skill at all lead times. Continued use of the original calibration method is therefore recommended in order to retain skill and continuity of service of the BoM operational and public multiweek TC forecasts. ACCESS‐S2 real‐time forecasts and corresponding observations for cyclone Emnati and tropical storms Fezile and Dumako in the South Indian Ocean for lead time week 2 (16–22 February 2022), initialised 8 February 2022. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a key driver of global tropical cyclone (TC) activity on subseasonal (multiweek) timescales. In this study we show that the MJO is important for skilful forecasts of TC activity in ACCESS‐S2 – the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) multiweek to seasonal prediction system – out to five weeks ahead, and demonstrate real‐time prediction skill for cyclone Emnati and tropical storms Fezile and Dumako in the South Indian Ocean in February 2022.