Defending Taiwan: But ... What Are the Costs?

• Published in: The Washington quarterly 2023-10, Vol.46 (4), p.65-81
• Main Authors: Metz, Rachel, Sand, Erik
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Ambiguity; Benefits; Commitment; Cost analysis; Costs; Debates; Foreign policy; International relations; Invasions; Management; Military strategy; Nuclear war; War
• ISSN: 0163-660X; 1530-9177
• DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2023.2285165

A central goal of US foreign policy and defense strategy is to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The US Department of Defense plans for the Chinese invasion as its pacing scenario, and there is bipartisan momentum in Congress toward more hawkish China policy generally and a clear US commitment to defending Taiwan specifically. With this congressional wind at its back, the Biden Administration has stepped from strategic ambiguity toward a more forthright commitment to Taiwan's defense. The US government's increasing commitment to defend Taiwan against China marks a tremendous shift in US foreign policy. But Congress and the Biden Administration seem to have put the cart before the horse. Decisions as important as going to war with nuclear-armed great powers demand systematic analysis and fulsome public debate about the costs and benefits of action. Thus far, however, the public debate has largely neglected the costs side of the cost-benefits equation, focusing primarily on the benefits. Here, Metz and Sand summarize the often-touted benefits of US involvement in Taiwan, explain why such involvement would likely mean a direct war with China, and then elaborate the costs side of such involvement.