Evolution of ENSO ‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia: A robustness revisit

• Published in: International journal of climatology 2024-01, Vol.44 (1), p.269-285
• Main Authors: Liu, Yunyun, Hu, Zeng‐Zhen, Wu, Renguang, Ding, Yihui, Jha, Bhaskar
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anomalies; Climate; Climate prediction; Decay; El Nino; El Nino phenomena; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event; Evolution; Flavors; La Nina; Precipitation; Precipitation anomalies; Robustness; Sea surface; Sea surface temperature; Seasonal precipitation; Southern Oscillation; Surface temperature
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.8327

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal climate predictability and a key predictor for East Asian precipitation. However, the impacts of ENSO on East Asian precipitation are extremely complex and still controversial. Thus, it is necessary and significant to use various (observational and model) data sources to further examine the robustness of the impacts. This study revisits the evolution of the ENSO‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia, including symmetric and asymmetric impacts of El Niños and La Niñas, the differences in the influences of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niños, and the interdecadal change of ENSO influences. The ENSO impact on East Asian precipitation has weakened (strengthened) in the ENSO's developing (decay) phase in the recent two decades. The ENSO impacts are robust in (i) southern China‐lower reaches of the Yangtze River‐southern Japan around the ENSO's mature phase, (ii) western North China in the developing phase and (iii) southwestern China in the decay phase. The distribution of East Asian precipitation anomalies is asymmetric in El Niño and La Niña years. The model simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature generally reproduce the observed evolution of seasonal precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and confirm the robust impact of ENSO in East Asia. These results indicate the necessity to consider the asymmetric impact of El Niños and La Niñas, to distinguish the El Niño flavours for their impact on the East Asian climate, and to include the interdecadal variation of ENSO influence in addressing East Asian climate anomalies.