Decision Analysis and CO2–Enhanced Oil Recovery Development Strategies

• Published in: Natural resources research (New York, N.Y.) N.Y.), 2022-02, Vol.31 (1), p.735-749
• Main Authors: Attanasi, E. D., Freeman, P. A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Brief Communication; Carbon dioxide; Carbon sequestration; Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Computer Science; Decision analysis; Development strategies; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Economic analysis; Economic incentives; Economics; Enhanced oil recovery; Fossil Fuels (incl. Carbon Capture); Geography; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics; Mineral Resources; Oil recovery; Oils & fats; Physics; Reservoirs; Statistics for Engineering; Strategy; Sustainable Development
• ISSN: 1520-7439; 1573-8981
• DOI: 10.1007/s11053-021-09983-6

This paper analyzes the relationship between actual reservoir conditions and predicted measures of performance of carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 –EOR) programs. It then shows how CO 2 –EOR operators might maximize the value of their projects by approaching implementation using a “flexible selective” pattern development strategy, where the CO 2 –EOR program patterns are selectively developed based on site-specific reservoir properties. It also analyzes performance measures and economic consequences of utilizing a continuous CO 2 injection strategy intended to maximize CO 2 retention for a defined time period. “Net CO 2 utilization,” calculated as difference between the volumes of CO 2 injected and CO 2 recovered in the production stream divided by the oil produced, is a standard measure of CO 2 –EOR carbon utilization, but it can be a misleading predictor of the actual CO 2 retained in the reservoir. Asset value can be added to a CO 2 –EOR project by recognizing effects of variations in reservoir parameter values and basing incremental development decisions on those data. For policy analysts, the consequences of ignoring geologic variability within a reservoir that is a candidate for CO 2 –EOR will likely be to substantially overestimate predicted adoption of CO 2 –EOR in response to economic incentives. This result holds true whether the CO 2 –EOR program objective is to maximize net value by maximizing oil production or maximize CO 2 storage with oil recovery.