Effects of extreme atmospheric precipitation on the stability of railways in the permafrost zone

• Published in: Modeling earth systems and environment 2024-02, Vol.10 (1), p.1305-1320
• Main Authors: Melnikov, Andrey, Zhang, Ze, Gagarin, Leonid
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air temperature; Annual precipitation; Atmospheric precipitations; Boreal ecosystems; Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Computer Science; Deformation; Depth; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth System Sciences; Ecosystems; Environment; Extreme weather; Frozen ground; Geocryology; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences; Melting; Original Article; Permafrost; Physics; Precipitation; Railroads; Railway engineering; Road beds; Soil temperature; Statistics for Engineering; Thawing
• ISSN: 2363-6203; 2363-6211
• DOI: 10.1007/s40808-023-01847-7

According to long-term observations of the roadbed condition of one of the railway sections operated in the Russian permafrost zone, short-term heavy rains in 2022 caused significant changes in geocryological conditions in the area of construction. As a result of this abnormal weather phenomenon, the depth of seasonal thawing of frozen soils increased by 11%, along with an increased average annual temperature by 0.5–1.0 °C, as compared with previous years of normal precipitation. Between 2017 and 2021, a subsidence of the roadbed at a rate of 2–4 cm/year was recorded on the studied object. In terms of deformation intensity, the trackbed was relatively stable, characterized by the defective but completely operational state of the track. However, due to extreme precipitation occurring in in 2022, the trackbed deformation increased twofold to 7–9 cm/yr. Since the extremes of the precipitation regime and their annual amounts on the territory of Russia tend to increase, the number of exogenous processes dangerous to the railway infrastructure will only increase over time. According to the forecast based on thermotechnical calculations, which assumes extreme summer precipitation occurring with a frequency of once per 2 years and a continuing + 0.5 °C/10-year trend of variations in the atmospheric air temperature, the seasonal thawing depth of the permafrost soil in the studied railway section is expected to exceed 2.0 m by 2040. To date, the instrumentally recorded depth of thawing within the railway structure averages 0.65 m.