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300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C
Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, m...
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Published in: | Nature climate change 2024-02, Vol.14 (2), p.171-177 |
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creator | McCulloch, Malcolm T. Winter, Amos Sherman, Clark E. Trotter, Julie A. |
description | Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (
R
2
= 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant ( |
doi_str_mv | 10.1038/s41558-023-01919-7 |
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R
2
= 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (<±0.1 °C) temperatures from 1700 to the early 1860s. Increasing ocean and land-air temperatures overlap until the late twentieth century, when the land began warming at nearly twice the rate of the surface oceans. Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 °C higher than IPCC estimates, with 2 °C global warming projected by the late 2020s, nearly two decades earlier than expected.
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R
2
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Understanding temperature change since the pre-industrial period is essential for climate action. 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Clim. Chang</stitle><date>2024-02-01</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>14</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>171</spage><epage>177</epage><pages>171-177</pages><issn>1758-678X</issn><eissn>1758-6798</eissn><abstract>Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (
R
2
= 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (<±0.1 °C) temperatures from 1700 to the early 1860s. Increasing ocean and land-air temperatures overlap until the late twentieth century, when the land began warming at nearly twice the rate of the surface oceans. Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 °C higher than IPCC estimates, with 2 °C global warming projected by the late 2020s, nearly two decades earlier than expected.
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subjects | 704/106/413 704/106/694/2739 Air temperature Anthropogenic factors Carbonates Climate action Climate Change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Earth and Environmental Science Environment Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice Estimates Global temperatures Global warming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Ocean mixed layer Oceans Records Sea surface Sea surface temperature Surface temperature Temperature Temperature changes Temperature rise Thermometry |
title | 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C |
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