Sunspot variability and an attempt to predict solar cycle 23 by adaptive filtering

The series of annual mean relative sunspot numbers (Rz) for 1749–1996 is subjected to the recently developed methodology of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). This technique also enables data-adaptive filtering of the individual spectral components. Low order autoregressive modelling of the component...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earth, planets, and space planets, and space, 1998-01, Vol.50 (2), p.91-100
Main Author: RANGARAJAN, G. K
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptive filters
Astronomy
Autoregressive models
Diameter, figure, rotation, mass
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
Periodic variations
Periodicities
Solar cycle
Solar magnetic cycle
Solar physics
Solar system
Spectrum analysis
Sunspot numbers
Sunspots
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Summary:The series of annual mean relative sunspot numbers (Rz) for 1749–1996 is subjected to the recently developed methodology of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). This technique also enables data-adaptive filtering of the individual spectral components. Low order autoregressive modelling of the components are combined to provide a basis for predicting the solar cycle 23.The Rz series is largely dominated by a doublet with periods 11.13 and 10.35 yr. close to the nominal solar cycle periodicity, a longer period variation (~110 yr.) which is the envelope of the amplitude maxima and two clusters of periodicities centred around 8 yr. and 5.5 yr. The solar magnetic cycle has no detectable component. The predicted maximum for cycle 23 will have a magnitude of ~130 and the epoch of maximum is expected between late 2000 A.D. and early 2001 A.D.
ISSN:1343-8832
1880-5981
1880-5981
DOI:10.1186/BF03352090