Political trust in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: a meta-analysis of 67 studies

Trust in political actors and institutions has long been seen as essential for effective democratic governance. During the COVID-19 pandemic, trust was widely identified as key for mitigation of the crisis through its influence on compliance with public policy, vaccination and many other social atti...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of European public policy 2024-03, Vol.31 (3), p.657-679
Main Authors: Devine, Daniel, Valgarðsson, Viktor, Smith, Jessica, Jennings, Will, Scotto di Vettimo, Michele, Bunting, Hannah, McKay, Lawrence
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Compliance
Conspiracy
COVID-19
COVID-19 vaccines
First year
Governance
Government
Health authorities
Immunization
Meta-analysis
Mitigation
Pandemics
Political trust
Politics
Presidents
Public policy
Research design
Response bias
Social attitudes
Uptake
Vaccine hesitancy
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Summary:Trust in political actors and institutions has long been seen as essential for effective democratic governance. During the COVID-19 pandemic, trust was widely identified as key for mitigation of the crisis through its influence on compliance with public policy, vaccination and many other social attitudes and behaviours. We study whether trust did indeed predict these outcomes through a meta-analysis of 67 studies and 426 individual effect sizes derived from nearly 1.5 million observations worldwide. Political trust as an explanatory variable has small to moderate correlations with outcomes such as vaccine uptake, belief in conspiracy theories, and compliance. These correlations are heterogenous, and we show that trust in health authorities is more strongly related to vaccination than trust in the government; but compliance is more strongly related to the government than other institutions. Moreover, the unique case of the United States indicates that trust in President Trump had negative effects across all observed outcomes, except in increasing conspiracy beliefs. Our analysis also shows that research design features (such as response scales) and publication bias do not importantly change the results. These results indicate that trust was important for the management of the pandemic and supports existing work highlighting the importance of political trust.
ISSN:1350-1763
1466-4429
DOI:10.1080/13501763.2023.2169741